Daring predictions for a new year

Niels Bohr's old saying - "prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" - should be banned from the public discourse for a while. It is so overused as to make it a boring cliche - and anyway, there's plenty of other available quotes to be used as one talks about the future: "The thing to remember is that that the future comes one day at a time" - as Dean Acheson once said - or Ronald Reagan's "If you're afraid of the future, then get out of the way."

However, my favorite line comes from a Jewish source, and is usually used in its Yiddish form. A line best expressing the ironic pessimism rooted in Jewish history, and is also best suited for today's Middle East: "Don't worry about tomorrow - for who knows what's going to happen today."

Iran: Negotiations

The U.S. and the EU will sit and talk with the leaders in Tehran. The outcome: no real sanctions, no military strike, and at the end, a nuclear weapon, secretly developed, in the hands of the Ayatollahs - but this will not happen this year.

U.S.-Israel: Demands

The years of calm are over. The U.S. will ask for some political concessions, and Israel will abide (Read more here).

Rice: Tradition

During the Lebanon war, Condoleezza Rice wasn't happy with the way Israel was overplaying its hand in Washington, and now it's payback time: she will be the one most responsible for the change of tone and policy, thus playing the traditional role of the secretary of state (see Kissinger, Baker, Albright, Powel).

Lebanon: Success

Hezbollah will be contained; the international force will help restore order. If Iran negotiates with the West (as I predict it will) Tehran won't want any distractions.

Hamas: Practical rhetoric

Some will call it moderation, some will say it is all tactics - but a more practical rhetoric will be coming from Gaza, as to ensure the survival of the Hamas (or unity) government.

War on terror: Europe

The scandal surrounding the remarks by the Holy See is a sign that Europe is getting closer to being declared an official foe of the terrorists. More attacks will follow.

Syria: Tricky

Probably more of the same: a lot of threats but no action to curb the regime's behavior. But there's also a possibility for another round of peace talks with Israel - if Assad is desperate enough to try something more daring, and if Olmert is desperate enough to find a new cause for his government.

Olmert: Survival

I guess he will survive, for a while, and the main reason is that there is no attractive candidate out there to challenge him. However, one can't stay in power for long with the approval rating he has now (not in Israel where there are no mandatory four-year terms. if you didn't see the last poll, take a look). By Rosh Hashanah next year we'll already have set a date for the next round of elections.

American Jews and Israel: Estrangement

The Lebanon war brought a moment of closeness and concern for Israel, but the aftermath will generally have the opposite effect. American Jews will be even more detached from a country whose future is uncertain in their view.

Pro-Israel lobby: Mersheimer

The new celebrity status of Walt and Mersheimer will give them more opportunities to spread their logic, and whether one likes it or not, people are listening.

Republicans: Less favorable

The party, moving away from Bush, will not be as friendly to hard-core Israeli views (some will call them right-wing views) as it has been in the past couple of years. The closer we get to the 2008 election cycle, the stronger the "realist" wing will get.

Democrats: Ditto

Many Democrats are already possess a more "balanced" approach (some think it's a good thing, even some within Israel). Had Kerry won in 2004, the new policies would now be in place. The candidate for 2008 will follow the same principles: talk nice about Israel, and plan for a more confrontational approach.

Lieberman: Victory

This one is hard, but I'll take the chance. Those who thought Joe Lieberman was destined to lose predicted that his numbers would be in constant decline right after he lost in the primaries. This hasn't happened, and his campaign is much more efficient now, raising the chances of him winning after all.

Anti-Semitism: Mea culpa

This will be the year in which Mel Gibson ("the first guy ever to be in more trouble for talking while drunk then driving while drunk") is going to meet some Jewish leaders and say he is sorry. If the Pope can do it, so can he.

Eisen: Conservative reform

The Conservative Jewish movement is on the brink of a new era. The appointed head of the JTS, Prof. Arnold Eisen, will lead the revolutionaries and set the new course (Read more about it here).

Jewish education: More money

The signs are already there, and the $100 million to Yeshiva University was a stunning reminder. The trend of giving more to Jewish education in America will keep gaining speed.

And the good news:

This year, no heavenly object will lose its planetary status.

Shana Tova.