Get ready for the Democrats

WASHINGTON - Congressman Chris Van Hollen, a Maryland Democrat, ran into a problem - he unintentionally found himself in the camp of Israel's enemies. All he wanted was an immediate cease-fire in Lebanon. A few weeks ago, as the war raged, he sent a letter to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, and asked her to do something. He was trying to take aim at the Bush administration - which is what a Democrat is expected to do on the eve of elections - but it turned out that this is not how Israel's friends saw things. Van Hollen was called in for a little chat with officials from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee.

Some accepted his explanations - he did not apologize, just clarified his statements - but others thought that was not enough and that Van Hollen had crossed the red line.

At the root of the American administration's support for Israel lies the assumption that this is not a subject of controversy. One can attack George W. Bush, but not at Israel's expense. Van Hollen's district in Maryland is very pro-Democrat, and is also populated by many Jews. Some of them may reconsider their congressional choice.

The midterm election campaign committee is scheduled to meet next week and throw the Democrats in high gear, which will probably lead them to victory. They can expect to take over the House of Representatives for the first time after a decade of Republican control, and they may even succeed in gaining control of the Senate. Until the 2008 presidential elections, political life will look different. The president will lack a congressional majority, and some of the most senior senators will be busy trying to win reelection campaigns.

The pro-Democrat voters are eager for a victory. Their support for Israel is stable, but their views differ from those of the Republicans. A Pew survey taken three weeks ago showed an interesting response to how much the U.S. should be involved in Lebanon. Most Republicans felt that the administration is intervening appropriately; however, many of the Democrats felt their country should be both "much more involved" and "much less involved." In this they reflected two common approaches of voters on the left: that calling for diplomatic intervention to settle conflicts, and that demanding the U.S. avoid interfering in such areas.

The main issues on the Middle East agenda will surely be influenced by a Democratic victory in the elections. Most of the Democratic voters no longer support an immediate withdrawal from Iraq, but they may change their minds. They will want to dispose of the problem, and not retain it for the next president to deal with, one who may be from their ranks. On the issue of Iran they face a dilemma: should they bypass President Bush on the right and present themselves as hawks, or should they take a moderate stance and present the administration as threatening to draw America into another military adventure?

The basic attitude of Congress toward Israel is not likely to change, according to some pro-Israel officials busy trying to insure just that. Given history they are likely to be correct, and the general support can be expected to continue. But there are times when the details also matter.

When a congressional majority comes from the ranks of the opposition, it may choose to fall in line with the president or to attack his administration. If it chooses to attack - it has the option of doing so from the right or the left. Traditionally, supporters of Israel have managed to keep its interests bipartisan. However, this task may now become more complicated: So long as Israel's affairs were at the sidelines of the American political agenda, an opposition party could easily forgo using it as a tool to confront the administration - since it was not a controversial issue. However, as the issues pertaining to Israel become increasingly central to U.S. foreign policy, it becomes more enticing to make use of them for political purposes.

The crisis with Iran, Lebanon, terrorism, the confrontation with Islam, democratization in the Middle East and the price of oil - these are all issues directly linked to Israel. Can a Democratic Congress avoid using these against the president, sometimes even at Israel's expense? This is an intriguing question. A partial answer has already been offered by Chris Van Hollen, and this does not necessarily herald easy days to come.