Give us time, not convergence

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's visit to Washington this week can already be deemed "a success" or "a failure" - both correct, both exaggerated.

The success is in the fact that the visit will be conflict free, because the Americans will shower Olmert with respect as only they know how; they will welcome him with warm words and red carpets, and they will stand and applaud his address to Congress. The failure is in that he is unlikely to make much headway with his convergence plan. As things stand now, Olmert will run into a rather fortified wall on this matter.

Now is not a good time for the U.S. to be dealing with the convergence plan. Olmert's visit, after all, is far from topping the public agenda in the United States, which is focused now on securing approval for the construction of the separation fence between Arizona and Mexico, and not the one between Hebron and Gush Etzion.

Last Thursday, a senior U.S. official sat down for a talk with journalists, mostly Arab. He showered Olmert with warm words, and had many harsh things to say about the Hamas government - but when it came to the convergence plan, he had little to say, and tip-toed around the issue.

Let's first hear what Olmert has to say - that's the motto for now. In other words: We will listen, but we won't promise anything. On another occasion, a State Department official spoke of the need to see whether the convergence plan fell in line with the road map, adding that a timetable would not be set during this visit.

On Friday, the State Department spokesman stressed the positive trend reflected in the meeting between Tzipi Livni and Mahmoud Abbas, who still "believes in the road map and negotiations." However, the spokesman made no mention whatsoever of convergence.

The U.S. administration wants to buy time, and does not want to get involved in new and controversial initiatives. There is no fixed date, officials here are saying - even though they know Olmert's time as prime minister is not unlimited.

The Americans have several reasons for wanting this time-out: On the one hand, a number of decision-makers believe that it is too early to attempt to move forward now. Pressure on Hamas is continuing, and the administration is investing much effort in this regard, but the outcome remains unknown. They believe this front should receive the focus, and an additional front should not be opened. Moreover, the Europeans don't appear too enamored with the convergence plan, and their cooperation vis-a-vis Hamas is essential.

At present, the U.S. is not making demands of Olmert, knowing that a true Palestinian partner is still amiss. Nevertheless, the Americans are in no mood to hurry right now: They don't and won't rule out convergence in the future - just not now.

The Americans also have questions regarding the inherent wisdom of the plan, stressing constantly that the prime minister has yet to present it to them, and as a result they are not familiar with its ins and outs.

Hence, while the Americans certainly would welcome the evacuation of any settlement or outpost, they may not agree to see such a move as part of a plan that deserves U.S. reciprocation - political or financial.

Political reasons also lie at the basis of the U.S. skepticism.

In the global arena: The U.S. does not want to anger the Europeans, particularly at a time when Washington needs their support on other issues, such as Iran; neither does the U.S. want to stir more discontent in the Arab world.

Domestically: Bush is weak now; he is busy trying to rehabilitate his presidency and does not want to waste energy on secondary matters such as the Israeli-Palestinian arena. Financial support of a unilateral Israeli move is also unlikely in light of the huge expenses the U.S. has to bear.

As stated, half in jest, by an official involved in the U.S.-Israel contacts: When it comes down to a choice between Olmert's political clock, which requires quick action, and Bush's clock, which requires waiting, "I think the president will go for the watch on his own wrist."


Previous headlines

Positive numbers, futile hope, shattered friendship here.


Never mind who's right here.

Showdown at Brandeis: Palestinian paintings and the painful truth here.

How important is Olmert's visit? here.