Subscribe to Print Edition | Wed., February 10, 2010 Shvat 26, 5770 | | Israel Time: 10:10 (EST+7)
Haaretz israel news English
web haaretz.com
Jewish World Haaretz Toolbar
Diplomacy
Defense Opinion National
Print Edition
Car Rental
Focus U.S.A. Strenger than Fiction Business Travel Magazine Week's End Anglo File Books Haaretz Store
Share |
Last update - 00:00 22/01/2008
If Giuliani is out, will it be Clinton or McCain?
By Shmuel Rosner
Tags: Rudy Giuliani, Israel Factor 
 

The new ranking by the Israel Factor panel is probably the last with more than three or four candidates. We will have more questions in the weeks ahead, but the next general ranking of the candidates, a month from now, is expected to include only those candidates who're going to be there until the end - or almost until the end, at least.

And so, regarding the new ranking:

1.

Giuliani is still leading the pack, but this might be the last time. If he fails to win in Florida or doesn't do well on February 5 (Super Tuesday), the panel will have to settle on a new favorite, but who?

That's the interesting question. This month, McCain is the candidate in second place to Giuliani, but last month it was Clinton, with Bloomberg in third place and McCain as fourth.

2.

We did previously explore a head-to-head race between Clinton and McCain, and what we reached was "a surprising conclusion: For the first time since we started this project, we learn that most of the panel, in a two way race between the two leading candidates, prefers Hillary Clinton the Democrat over John McCain the Republican. This conclusion, though, doesn't change the fact that on average McCain keeps getting higher marks from the panel."

What were the reasons? In the analysis we highlighted some of the technical reasons that are to do with the way the panel ranks the candidates. But here is what we wrote in conclusion:

"Looking for a more profound, less technical explanation? You might be disappointed. It's the 'gut feeling' component of political choice. Forced to choose, people make a decision - and the panel revealed its true colors in this two-way race."

This, however, was a year ago.

3.

This month, there are three panelists who rank McCain higher than Clinton, two who rank Clinton higher, and three who give them the same mark. If the race comes down to Clinton vs. McCain, we have a couple of previous survey questions that may help us in trying to understand the potentially decisive factors in the panel's consideration of who's better for Israel:

A. Emotional attachment: McCain got 3.62 out of 5 on the leadership question. But when we compared him to other candidates, McCain trailed both Giuliani and Clinton. The explanation: The panel "suspects that on the 'emotional attachment' test, he will not fare as well. Israelis, like all other nations, prefer the American president to be not just an ally, but also a friend. Bill Clinton was such a friend, George Bush is such a friend. The panel seems to trust Giuliani and the other Clinton to be such friends too. But John McCain? Not so much, until proven otherwise."

Will the endorsement from Senator Joe Lieberman be able to change this perception? Possibly. But this will be the panel's decision.

B. Iran: The panel, time and again, expressed its approval for McCain's position on Iran. "It is the power of centrism that played the decisive role. The power of being tough, but not too tough. McCain didn't get the best marks from most of the panelists. Many liked Giuliani's combative response better, but some thought he was overly aggressive. McCain was just the one candidate who was basically agreeable to all."

I might guess that McCain gets the upper hand in this department, but again, the panelists will be the ones to make the call.

C. Mideast policy: When we compared the three New Yorkers, we discovered that the panel trusts Clinton more than Giuliani and Bloomberg when it comes to policy in the region. It did not help her against Giuliani for other reasons. Would it be more of a factor in a head-to-head race against McCain? A lot depends on the question of policy regarding Iran.

D. Israel and Palestine: Not so long ago, we noticed an interesting fact: "Three out of the five panelists who gave Giuliani the highest mark are also the three panelists who want less American involvement in the peace process."

McCain is perceived as someone who's going to be much more involved, and this was a problem for him with some in the panel. But I don't think this would be a consideration should he run against Clinton, because she is also a candidate whom the panel expects will be more involved than the current president or a President Giuliani. Also noteworthy is that four of our panelists voted for a Bill Clinton-like involvement in the peace process.

E. Character: The panel basically trusts McCain in the sense that what you hear is what you'll get. For Clinton it is more complicated. The panel was somewhat more skeptical regarding Clinton.

F. The right approach: The following reasons were given by the panel when we asked why Giuliani was the best candidate:

  • "He can deal in a realistic way with the conflicts of Middle East"

  • "He will not be overly susceptible to world opinion"

  • "He is ready to use force when necessary"

  • "He knows Israel and its problems"

  • "He will make sure not to pressure Israel into making concessions that would leave it with indefensible borders"

  • "He will take into account the interests of Israel as he formulates his Middle East policy"

  • "He is emotionally attached to Israel and the things it represents, and is pro-Zionist"

  • "He is well connected within the American Jewish community"

    Does this sound more like a McCain or a Clinton?

    4.

    If you want to understand the low rankings for both Obama and Huckabee, the the following posts should help. For Obama, here and here, and for Huckabee here and here.

    5.

    Bloomberg is still ranked fairly high, but last week the panel was quite adamant in saying that it would downgrade his marks should he decide to take Senator Chuck Hagel as his running mate, as some news reports have suggested.

    Related links:
  • Israel Factor homepage
  • Yes to Bloomberg, but no to Hagel
  • Rosner's Domain
  • PROMOTION: Mamilla Hotel
    Bookmark to del.icio.us  
     
    Wiesel's petition
    Nobel winner says he wouldn't cry if Ahmadinejad were killed , and has signed on it.
    Heckling Michael Oren
    Muslim students scream 'killer' during Israeli envoy's lecture at the University of California.
      1.   Please go back to school! 00:03  |  No more warmongering 23/01/08
      2.   It appears that your panel leans heavily to the Democrats 01:49  |  Joel Stein 23/01/08
      3.   Well said #1 02:09  |  American 23/01/08
      4.   NO, SIR 03:55  |  indrajaya 23/01/08
      5.   If it`s not McCain, you might as well send Obama an engraved 06:07  |  invitation 23/01/08
      6.   Republicians are not traditionaly "primary" voters. 06:11  |  FL is a Rep State 23/01/08
      7.   The tribe heavyly invovled in Iraq deception 06:17  |  jc 23/01/08
      8.   What`s the point? 06:24  |  ef 23/01/08
      9.   What is the money used for??? 06:43  |  Palchod 23/01/08
      10.   RON PAUL is the BEST FOR ISRAEL 07:40  |  Rob 23/01/08
      11.   Netanyahu & Bill Clinton Don`t Speak 07:51  |  David 23/01/08
      12.   Clinton or McCain? 08:17  |  Shlomo 23/01/08
      13.   This permanent, infantile, me, me, me question 09:39  |  Clickfool 23/01/08
      14.   Obama and Hillary will lose 21:27  |  D. Torres 23/01/08
      15.   israel factor panel 23:39  |  hollingsworth 23/01/08
      16.   israel factor panel cont. 23:44  |  hollingsworth 23/01/08
      17.   Well said Clickfool 00:53  |  jc 24/01/08
      18.   D. Torres in NYC 01:46  |  KT 24/01/08
      19.   It will influence my vote.... 02:24  |  William 24/01/08
      20.   Both Equally Positive for Israel 03:28  |  Jane 24/01/08
      21.   The best for Israel 08:01  |  Frank 24/01/08
      22.   if Giuliani is out it will be Clinton or McCain ? 09:23  |  Martiin List,M.D. 24/01/08
      23.   A central question you do not ask 13:30  |  Shalom Freedman 24/01/08
      24.   Truthfully....... 14:57  |  Jeff 24/01/08
      25.   The Ugly Ones As Favorites 16:04  |  Tony Anthony 24/01/08
      26.   Jane is right 19:43  |  hollingworth 24/01/08
      27.   no room for the Williams and the hollingsworths 22:32  |  hollingsworth 24/01/08
      28.   Ron Paul is anti-Israel 08:39  |  Diane 30/01/08
      29.   I like Hillary 08:53  |  Diane 30/01/08
      30.   Hillary on Iran 08:58  |  Diane 30/01/08
    Special Offers
    Advertisement
    Eldan Rent a Car
    Israel's leading car rental company offers you a 20% discount on online reservations
    Shalom Hartman Institute Jerusalem
    This Summer in Jerusalem Learn about the "Other". Special Prices Until Feb. 15
    100% Pure Dead Sea Salt
    Lowest price in the U.S.A. for genuine Dead Sea Salts
    Online forex trading now with
    the security of a Swiss bank
    Best Passover Vacations Under the Sun in Florida, Arizona, Mexico.
    Resort Vacations. All the traditions of Passover. Glatt Kosher
    Your Aliyah starts here.
    Nefesh B'Nefesh Aliyah Workshops and Personal Meetings in your area
    Camp Kimama Israel - Summer 2010
    An incredible experience with Jewish youth from all over the world
     Haaretz Hot Topics
    Exclusive: EU draft on dividing Jerusalem
    Gilad Shalit
    Settlement Freeze
    Iran nuclear program
    More Headlines
    09:41 Report: Iran says nuclear deal 'still on the table'
    10:03 Lebanese PM: We will stand united against Israeli threat
    10:03 Israel: Gaza crossing to stay shut as long as Hamas in power
    08:28 Defense Minister and IDF chief clash over Ashkenazi's future
    09:59 Like Netanyahu, Barak wants second shot as prime minister
    09:56 Israeli-Palestinian peace would neutralize Iran threat
    09:55 Israeli academics: Reject university status for settlement college
    02:31 TV ROUND-UP: West promises Iran sanctions, Violence breaks out in East Jerusalem
    10:03 Israel strikes Gaza in response to Qassam rockets
    03:23 Suspected Jewish terrorist admits to anti-missionary activities
    05:10 Family says Israeli man died after hospital staff ignored doctor's note
    06:41 Environmental protection chief: State is Israel's biggest polluter
    Home | TV | Print Edition | Diplomacy | Opinion | Arts & Leisure | Sports | Jewish World | Site rules |
    | Advert: Recommended Restaurants | Makom: Engaging on Israel
    | Search engine marketing
    Haaretz.com, the online edition of Haaretz Newspaper in Israel, offers real-time breaking news, opinions and analysis from Israel and the Middle East. Haaretz.com provides extensive and in-depth coverage of Israel, the Jewish World and the Middle East, including defense, diplomacy, the Arab-Israeli conflict, the peace process, Israeli politics, Jerusalem affairs, international relations, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the Palestinian Authority, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, the Israeli business world and Jewish life in Israel and the Diaspora.
    © Copyright  Haaretz. All rights reserved