Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told his associates on Monday that he intends to advance the diplomatic process and negotiations on the core issues even if this makes him lose his parliamentary majority.
The statement was made in advance of his meeting set for Tuesday with Yisrael Beiteinu Chairman Avigdor Lieberman, who has threatened to pull his party out of the coalition if Olmert starts talks with the Palestinians on the core issues of borders, Jerusalem and the refugees.
Lieberman issued this ultimatum last week, but on Monday the negotiating teams headed by Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and former Palestinian prime minister Ahmed Qureia held their first session on these topics. Olmert also told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that serious talks are impossible without addressing the core issues, and he intends to hold serious talks.
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Even if Yisrael Beiteinu leaves, Olmert's coalition would still command a comfortable majority of 67 MKs. The premier would prefer a larger coalition, however, and has begun wooing United Torah Judaism to join the government in Lieberman's place. Though previous efforts to bring UTJ into the coalition have failed, Olmert's associates believe that the party will agree this time.
At a Yisrael Beiteinu faction meeting on Monday, Lieberman made his case for quitting the coalition. He said the government has violated the red lines the party set, so the party would seem to have no choice but to leave.
But he asked faction members not to speak to the media until after his meeting with Olmert today, where he will request clarifications about the negotiations and the government's plans to evacuate illegal settlement outposts.
Tuesday evening, Lieberman will convene his party's secretariat to discuss the results of his meeting with Olmert and decide what to do. On Wednesday, he plans to call a press conference to announce his decision.
Lieberman told associates on Monday that the start of negotiations on the core issues is a "casus belli." Olmert's declared intent to evacuate outposts and his decision to relax the criteria for releasing Palestinian prisoners are also "troubling," he said.
Until now, Olmert has worked hard to keep Lieberman in his coalition, and according to senior Yisrael Beiteinu officials, Lieberman had expected the premier to be similarly accommodating this time. Instead, to his surprise, Olmert simply ignored the party's red lines, which he views as a sign that Olmert wants to see him leave the government.
Senior Kadima officials echoed this assessment. Yisrael Beiteinu's departure would actually be convenient, they said, because it would increase pressure on Labor to remain in the government even after the Winograd Committee publishes its final report on the Second Lebanon War at the end of the month.
"The Labor Party and [party chairman] Ehud Barak will be able to argue that without Lieberman, the diplomatic process can be accelerated, and therefore, it would be irresponsible to leave the government," explained one. "Sooner or later, Lieberman will leave anyway, so it's better [if it happens] now, before Winograd."
Unlike Yisrael Beiteinu, Labor is essential to Olmert: Without it, he does not have a coalition. However, during his campaign for the party leadership last spring, Barak had pledged to quit the government after the Winograd report was published.
An Olmert associate said on Monday that there was no reason for Lieberman to be surprised by recent developments. Olmert "wants to reach an agreement [with the Palestinians], and he intends to realize his vision, even at the price of Lieberman's departure," the associate said.
Meanwhile, Likud is continuing its efforts to persuade both Yisrael Beiteinu and Shas to quit the coalition. "Like us, they see the dangers [of Olmert's diplomatic moves], and we expect them to draw conclusions and quit the government now," Likud Chairman Benjamin Netanyahu said at a faction meeting on Monday.
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