DES MOINES, Iowa - It's been two and a half days since the bald janitor at Valley High School cleaned up the garbage left by hundreds of participants in the caucus held here, a vote that shook the foundation of U.S. politics.
At the Valley caucus, 166 votes went to Barack Obama, 104 to Hillary Clinton, 86 to John Edwards and 69 to Bill Richardson. Chris Dodd and Joe Biden's groups did not make the cut. A few hours later, the candidates announced they were pulling out of the race.
Biden and Dodd learned a valuable lesson: Expertise in foreign policy can only take you so far. In their absence, the race for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination is empty of such specialists. Richardson lacks judgment and Clinton, Obama and Edwards lack Dodd and Biden's experience. But the latter two do not have Obama's charisma that brings in the voters.
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He meticulously delivered his victory speech on Thursday. If he survives the long race ahead of him and becomes president, it will be a speech to remember.
The Des Moines airport on Friday was filled with people either rushing home (those who lost in the caucuses) and those heading for the next leg in New Hampshire, scheduled to take place on Tuesday.
Possible scenarios are numerous and complicated, but the simple truth is that the two favorites to win on Friday must now win in New Hampshire. Clinton must win and Romney must win. If they lose again there is a real danger of jeopardizing their campaigns.
Both led in polls last week, but Clinton and Romney are playing at a hard game. In the televised debate on Saturday they faced a dilemma whether to attack and criticize or implement what they learned in Iowa: Voters prefer calm, kind candidates. Iowans, after all, rejected Clinton's image and Edwards' populist stance, and voted for Obama, the man who suggested that we forget about classifying states as either red or blue. They voted in favor of Huckabee's pleasant sense of humor and his message of conservatism.
Huckabee will not win in New Hampshire; there are not enough Evangelicals there. Perhaps his victory in Iowa will turn out to be an isolated event just like televangelist Pat Robertson's achievement in the 1988 caucuses, in which he came in second after Bob Dole. Making predictions is difficult but one must take into account that Huckabee may be able to surprise again.
Either way, Huckabee managed to rock the Republican boat ideologically and politically in a way that could help John McCain beat Romney decisively. In turn, such a scenario could boost Rudy Giuliani's campaign in January or early February if no candidate with a clear lead emerges.
Most notable about Romney and Edwards' concession speeches was their cumbersome attempt to attribute some of Obama and Huckabee's success to themselves. "Didn't we tell you all along that people wanted a change?" they said.
If Clinton fails again in New Hampshire it may turn out that the major candidates are Obama and Edwards. If she manages to stay in the race, the days of Edwards' campaign are numbered and his political career will be over.
In the Depression-era election of 1932, Senator Thomas Gore sent a short, reassuring message to his friend Franklin Delano Roosevelt. "Even if every Democrat in Iowa were thrown in jail", FDR will still win in Hoover's home state, Gore wrote. Herbert Hoover, who many accused of failing to properly respond to the financial crisis, was the only president ever born in Iowa and its pride and joy when he was elected. But no one can prevent changes, and Roosevelt won in Iowa.
Thus, the Democratic Party attracted more voters to the caucuses than ever. Some 180 new Democrats signed up for the Valley High School vote; people who previously voted for Republicans or independents now favored Obama. Obama now hopes to attract independent voters in New Hampshire, where polls show their numbers are particularly great. He also seeks new voters. To Hillary Clinton, New Hampshire will be a considerable challenge.
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