Mike Huckabee was never a favorite of the Israel Factorpanel. In the early days of the Factor, the panel had difficulties deciding who exactly he was and what policies he believes in. Later, Huckabee got some credit because of the assumption that an evangelical candidate would probably be supportive of Israel, but lost more on the grounds that he is a novice who has no real knowledge or background when it comes to the issues of the troubled Middle East.
But now, with the comprehensive article Huckabee penned for Foreign Affairs, the panel had a chance to take a closer look at the hottest Republican candidate. And more specifically, at his views regarding the crisis over Iran's nuclear weapons program.
Two weeks ago, when we ranked the candidates on their reactions to the NIE report on Iran, Huckabee was not part of the group we ranked. Famously, his reaction the NIE was a blunder ("Have you heard of the finding?" "No"). So this is our chance to rank Huckabee on this most crucial question - and the panel doesn't like what it sees.
We sent the panelists the fairly long excerpt dealing with Iran from Huckabee's article. The candidate is very critical of the Bush administration: "After President Bush included Iran in the 'axis of evil,' everything went downhill fast", he wrote. Earlier in the article Huckabee blames Bush for an "arrogant bunker mentality," but on some matters does support the president's policies: "I welcome the Bush administration's new sanctions against Iran and its decision to designate Iran's Revolutionary Guards as a proliferator of weapons of mass destruction."
The bottom line, however, is quite clear: "Whereas there can be no rational dealings with al Qaeda, Iran is a nation-state seeking regional clout and playing the game of power politics we understand and can skillfully pursue. We cannot live with al Qaeda, but we might be able to live with a contained Iran. Iran will not acquire nuclear weapons on my watch. But before I look parents in the eye to explain why I put their son's or daughter's life at risk, I want to do everything possible to avoid conflict. We have substantive issues to discuss with Tehran. Recent direct negotiations about Iraq have not been productive because they have not explored the full range of issues. We have valuable incentives to offer Iran: trade and economic assistance, full diplomatic relations, and security guarantees."
We asked the panel to compare Huckabee's views to those of other candidates, and also to comment on some of his more specific statements. This is what we got:
The panel, in general, is less than happy with Huckabee. The fact that he got a score of 3 when we asked the panel to compare him to other Republicans shouldn't fool anyone. It is only because some panelists don't like the tone of some of the other Republican candidates and found an opportunity to express their misgivings.
There are two important numbers in this survey. The first one is the paltry 2.87 Huckabee scored on the "stand by Israel" question. This is very low for any American presidential candidate, whom the panel generally regards as supportive of Israel. We should also note that on this question the panel was basically in agreement, which is not the case when it comes to questions of policy (for example, some panelists enthusiastically support a dialogue with Iran).
The other significant number is the 1.87 Huckabee scored for his comment "Iran will not acquire nuclear weapons on my watch." The panel does not believe him, and for good reason. If containing Iran is possible - and he thinks it is - stopping it at all cost becomes less important.
As we wrote in the past, as far as this panel is concerned, good on Iran is good for Israel. I'd assume that in the next monthly ranking Huckabee will lose some points.
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