Our weekly Israel Factor question was different this time in more than one way. And the most interesting: the panel didn't know the names of the candidates involved.
It was an easy task: giving marks to quotes from both Republicans and Democrats. The names of the people behind the statements were kept from them until after the marks were all in. The most visible result: Democrat Chris Dodd of Connecticut, who ranks second to last in the general ranking, was the one articulating the most popular of quotes: "I'd love to see a democratic Middle East but you've got to be a coherent society before you can be a democracy."
Five of the eight panelists gave him a 5 (on a 1-5 scale) for this one. If you want to know what policy the panel would like to see from America when it comes to promoting democracy in the Middle East - this is the one.
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All the quotes were taken from the Web site of the Council on Foreign Relations. Go to the issue tracker on Democracy Promotion in the Arab World, and you'll find them all there.
It is, one must admit at the outset, somewhat arbitrary. One good (or for that matter, disastrous) sentence doesn't necessarily represent the full range of a candidate's policies. Thus, some of the campaigns will have a reason to claim that the choice was poor, or misleading, or uncharacteristic. Nevertheless, it gives one a sense of what the panel wants to hear regarding this issue, and what they think is an American policy that's good for Israel. Dodd's statement is the prime example; the panel's second choice was, again, from an unlikely candidate: Mitt Romney.
Furthermore, the statement by Romney - not one of the panel's top favorites - got a score of 5 from two panelists and a 4 from four.
"We need a partnership for prosperity and progress aimed at supporting moderate Muslims in economic, health, rule of law and other areas to help them defeat radical and violent Islam." You can see the other quotes and the marks they received in the table below:
Other than rating the candidates' quotes, I also asked the panelists for a one-liner on the same topic: Promoting democracy in the Middle East, or the Arab world.
By reading what the panel has to say on this issue, their choice of the candidates' statements (Dodd's message) becomes better understood. The almost unanimous view of the panel is similar to the one articulated by Dodd.
Having learned the lessons of Iraq, the Palestinian territories and Lebanon, there's practically a growing American consensus on this issue: Yes to democracy and yes to elections, but not as the first expressions of a freer society.
The panelists say the same thing:
"America's long-term goal must be establishing democracies in the Middle East rooted in accountable government," says one panel member. "But holding elections is the final stage in creating a democracy which first must be supported by freedom of the press, trade unions, the promotion of a middle class, the separation of mosque and state and academic freedom."
Another states that the U.S. should "encourage democratic institutions and civil rights in the Arab and Muslim world before it pushes for elections. Permitting secular opposition movements should be emphasized in most of the existing regimes."
"Promote stability, gradually press for political reforms and pluralism, provide visible incentives for democracy and actively exert influence to mediate ongoing conflicts," writes a third
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