The first question we asked the panel this month is based on an assumption that's empirically hard to prove: Both Bill Clinton and George Bush were good presidents for Israel. These two men, who differed in manner and policy, and who reigned in different eras, shared one important thing: their love of Israel.
Israelis, many polls have proven, believed them, trusted them, approved of their policies and were sure that their intentions were good. Clinton tried to be the peace-maker and ultimately failed. Bush was the first American president to state his support for Palestinian statehood, but was not shy of letting Ariel Sharon execute his warlike policies in the occupied territories. All in all, the last 14 years were years of cooperation and understanding between the Israeli and the American administrations. Not always, but as close to as it can get.
However, judging by the answer to the first question of our survey this month, these years of calm won't last forever. In fact, the panel does not expect the next president (with only handful of exceptions) to be as good for Israel as Bush and Clinton.
The question was somewhat tricky and the answers are also a complicated mix of numbers. We asked the panel to compare Democratic hopefuls to Clinton and Republican hopefuls to Bush. We also gave the current and former presidents a sscore of "6" in order give enough room for maneuver below and above them (giving them a score of "5" seemed odd, as it is clear they were not just so-so on Israel). The number each candidate was given represents how he would do compared to Clinton/Bush.
The results are quite clear: only two of them are expected to be as good as Clinton/Bush. These two - Giuliani and Gingrich - aren't those considered the most promising candidates. Bottom line: the next president will probably not be as friendly as Clinton/Bush. A sobering thought that should be taken into account in Jerusalem.
Hillary Clinton won't be as friendly to Israel as her husband, the panel concluded. But this conclusion has to be taken with a pinch of salt, as each panelist approached this question prejudiced by his political beliefs. Thus, one panelist thought Clinton would be better than her husband, four thought she'd be as good and three gave her lower marks, driving her ranking down. But one must remember that those three are the panelists who generally weren't very fond of President Clinton himself. That's why I bothered to give you not only the average, but also to tell you how many of the panelists voted in the samer manner.
Anyway, of the Democrats, Clinton is the only one to get a 7 from a panelist. Al Gore and Bill Richardson both got 6 from three panelists. John Kerry and Barak Obama came last, with just one 6 apiece (not from the same panelist though).
On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani and Newt Gingrich are thought by some of the panelists to be even friendlier than Bush. Only one panelist gave Gingrich a 5 (lower than Bush), and no panelists gave Giuliani less than 6 (he got 10 from one panelist, driving his mark upward). However, the two leading candidates, in the eyes of experts and some polls, John McCain and Mitt Romney, didn't rank as highly. Two panelists thought McCain would be better than Bush, two thought he'd be the same, four gave him lower marks, and only one panelist gave Romney a 6.
Prof. Camil Fuchs, after analyzing the numbers, brought to attention another revealing phenomenon: the marks, in general, are becoming lower. Apparently, the panelists have begun a process of lowering their expectations. Giuliani, who has come first in all three surveys, went from an average of 8.75 to 8.63 to 8.25 today. Hillary Clinton, number four in all three surveys, went from 7.63 to 7.25 to 7.00 today.
This, Fuchs agreed, is another reflection of the sentiments one can see in the answer to the first question: the panelists realized that it would be hard to find a candidate as friendly to Israel as Presidents Clinton and Bush, so it is adjusting to more modest, less enthusiastic estimations of the candidates.
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