The government went to war with the defined goal of bringing back the kidnapped soldiers. It claims to have won the war - on points only, to use the chief of staff's metaphor. And the abducted soldiers who were not returned home and Hezbollah's ability to launch 250 rockets on the last day of the war in which Hassan Nasrallah was beaten - those too are, among other things, the signs of victory.
Israel, a regional power in its own eyes that was fighting a small guerrilla outfit, did not have the power, sense, or willpower to condition the cease-fire on the release of the soldiers, or at least to demand their hand-over to a third party that could guarantee their welfare. Our victory was so great that we insisted that a force consisting of 15,000 UN soldiers, including ones from "friendly states" such as Malaysia and Indonesia - and France, of course − would serve as a buffer between us and the enemy that we routed.
And Hezbollah, after its defeat in battle, continues to lose the psychological war as well. For example, in the case of the videotape. The organization decided not only what and when to broadcast, but also who, and at what price, its propaganda would be broadcast in Israel. And the "winners," in their folly, eagerly show again and again the infuriating, schaudenfreude-laden propaganda. This war proved once again, Nasrallah (and more than a few Israelis agree with him about this, as well) must be saying to himself, that the Jews lost not only their operational abilities and their drive to engage the enemy militarily, but also their senses.
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Nasrallah truly deserves all the honorifics that have been heaped upon him in Israel. And his army, according to the theories of the experts at Channel 10 news who analyzed the videotape, is also the best and most daring army in the Middle East. Be afraid, O Israel. Not only do we fall into its maw again and again, but also with masochistic enjoyment we bolster its propaganda.
Even though the tape has no particular news value, the main television news channel fell over itself in broadcasting Hezbollah propaganda. And as if that were not enough, it is also paying a fortune for the right to praise our bitter enemy. The part of the tape on the kidnapping, after all, is intended to glorify the name of Nasrallah and his organization, and that is the goal behind its release. With such determined fighters, we Israelis say to ourselves, and on the basis of past experience, there is nothing for it but to pay the outrageous price being demanded. The main thing is for the children (in Israel, as everyone knows, the fighters are children. That's why the war in Lebanon turned out the way it did) to come home.
The multiple repeat broadcasts of the segment of the tape of Ron Arad is even more problematic. The moving sight of the man who has long become everyone's long lost relative is intended to tug at our heartstrings. True, we told ourselves after watching, even Nasrallah cannot bring back Ron. But if he gets his asking price and gets it now, the fate of the most recent kidnapped soldiers will not be the miserable fate of Ron. That is the explanation for the clever timing behind the tape's release.
Tens of thousands of people gathered at Tel Aviv's Rabin Square last week with a demand that was so humanitarian and so Jewish: the redemption of prisoners. Deep chords from bygone days were struck. Who could resist identifying with the mothers' pleas, the wives' longing, the fathers' sadness? Certainly not the beaten-down government that promised to bring the boys home and is now searching for public support.
Some observers, however, were counting the number of participants: Hezbollah and Hamas. Each additional body in the square added to their pleasure. The greater the internal pressures within Israel, the more it will pay. And if Ariel Sharon released hundreds of terrorists in exchange for Elhanan Tennenbaum, a criminal, for whom no one demonstrated, how much more will Ehud Olmert pay, especially after a large and well-publicized demonstration, despite his commitment to never again give in to extortion by kidnappers.
Nasrallah confessed that he had not expected such an aggressive Israeli response. He did expect, and the past proves that he and the rest of the kidnappers are not wrong, that Israel would once again release hundreds of terrorists in exchange for the abductees. The rally played into his hands. As did the videotape. And in the near future there will be more rallies for the release of the next batch of abductees. And so it goes.
To Olmert's credit, it must be said that when he launched the war in Lebanon, he tried to break the vicious circle. The attempt failed, but that does not mean there are no other ways to free the soldiers. If Olmert does not want to lose the meager achievements of the war, which even Nasrallah admits to, he must make Hezbollah and Hamas realize that Israel went to war on both fronts in order to change the rules of the game of kidnapping. And if he resists a mass release of terrorists, he might even be able to recapture his credibility and reputation. More important, Israel's deterrent power will be restored and the plague of kidnappings will be removed.
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