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Last update - 00:00 04/08/2006
ANALYSIS: Whatever happens, Iran wins
By Bradley Burston

In the West, Mahmoud Ahmedinejad is called a lot of names, many of them unprintable.

But the time may have come to call him the one name he has truly earned in dealing with the West - genius.

In the little over a year in which he has served as president of Iran, he has engineered a position for the Islamic Republic that is unique in the Middle East, and, indeed, in the world:

Whatever happens, Iran wins.

Take Iraq. The worse things get for the United States in Iraq, the more broadly genuine Ahmadinejad's smile gets.

George Bush, having invaded, reshuffled, and in many ways neutered Iraq, Iran's old hated rival in the region, has done for Tehran what Tehran couldn't do for itself in the disastrous Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s.

Even better for Ahmadinejad , the worse things get in Iraq and Lebanon, the higher that oil prices climb, and every few cents at the pump is ultimately going to spell billions more for the Iranian treasury.

The crowning development for Ahmadinejad is the circumstance that Washington's incalculable investment of troops, materiel, and policy in Iraq, and the myriad ways in which the war has gone catastrophically, may mean that the West cannot hope to orchestrate a future military offensive against Iran, even if the nuclear threat from Tehran clearly warrants it.

Stated differently, the War on Terror has granted Iran immunity. Ahmadinejad has a Get Out of Jail Free card, and he got it from Saddam Hussein.

Then there is this: Ahmadinejad understands as does no one else, the regional value of outrage.

Every obscene statement on the Holocaust, every matter-of-fact suggestion that Israel will be eradicated, every assertion of the Natural Right to Nuclear Capability, every jab at the Great Satan in Washington, only cements his status as the megastar of restive, miserable, messianic Muslims the world over.

In addition, Ahmadinejad and Iran's more violent client allies all profit greatly from the Everything is Victory element of the jihadist revolution, which tends to assess military developments according to the following criteria:

1. If I kill you, I win.
2. If you kill me, I am a martyr. I win big.
3. There are no innocents in the land of my enemy. If I kill infants, the elderly, pregnant women, even on purpose, I win.
4. When my enemy kills innocent civilians in error, even his own allies condemn him for brutality. I win.

The variations of the Iran Wins No Matter What principle are endless. But the best may have come this week, when French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy paid a visit to war-shattered Beirut.

France, once the colonial patron of the Paris of the Mideast, retains a special feeling about Lebanon. What many hadn't realized, however, was France's special feeling about Iran.

It is clear, Douste-Blazy told a news conference in Beirut, "that we could never accept a destabilization of Lebanon, which could lead to a destabilization of the region,"

And therefore, the French foreign minister continued:

"In the region there is of course a country such as Iran - a great
country, a great people and a great civilization, which is respected and which plays a stabilizing role in the region."
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  1.   Great country.... 11:15  |  Maimon 04/08/06
  2.   Two Problems 11:33  |  Natallie Durson 04/08/06
  3.   iran will lose 11:33  |  mo 04/08/06
  4.   Dont throw stones when your own windows are made of glass 11:41  |  ninjA4peAce 04/08/06
  5.   It`s not all Iran`s fault 11:50  |  Jimmy 04/08/06
  6.   Good question!!!! 11:53  |  Joelle 04/08/06
  7.   Easily misunderstood 11:53  |  Honi 04/08/06
  8.   GIVE THEM ENOUGH ROPE AND THEY WILL HANG THEMSELVES 11:59  |  paul harris 04/08/06
  9.   Ahmedinejad the genius? 11:59  |  Anubhav 04/08/06
  10.   Iran will win...by wreaking havoc 12:03  |  Kaveh 04/08/06
  11.   Iran will Hit Israel 12:05  |  Observer 04/08/06
  12.   the french interest 12:05  |  D Hirod 04/08/06
  13.   World War? 12:06  |  Chris 04/08/06
  14.   A DEAD SQUAD 12:22  |  Indrajaya 04/08/06
  15.   So it seems 12:26  |  Shalom Freedman 04/08/06
  16.   Whatever happens Iran loses 12:33  |  Sal 04/08/06
  17.   A Genius? or Mad? 12:40  |  Marco 04/08/06
  18.   AHMADINEJAD, GENIUS? 12:43  |  indrajaya 04/08/06
  19.   About the french FM speech 12:45  |  Angie 04/08/06
  20.   this is like a grade 8 essay 12:48  |  bibz 04/08/06
  21.   The Saudis will tell America what it needs 13:00  |  Ronnie Wolman 04/08/06
  22.   Thanks to the west ppl now even call him a genius 13:03  |  Ben 04/08/06
  23.   What genius you must be kidding! 13:07  |  Ben 04/08/06
  24.   France 13:24  |  snowflake5 04/08/06
  25.   The theory of relativity... 13:31  |  kami 04/08/06
  26.   You`re dead right Bradley Burston! 13:32  |  Kuri Abraham 04/08/06
  27.   You are spot on, Burston! 13:38  |  Amoz 04/08/06
  28.   Even geniuses can fall down very hard! 14:30  |  B. Schaepdryver 04/08/06
  29.   # Shalom Freedman 14:49  |  Margie in Tel Aviv 04/08/06
  30.   Ahmadinejad Vs Olmert 14:55  |  Alan 04/08/06
  31.   whatever - iran wins 14:56  |  EDWARD K 04/08/06
  32.   reply to Observer # 11 15:02  |  cohen 04/08/06
  33.   Bradley Burston projecting? 15:03  |  Osborne Reed 04/08/06
  34.   elimating isreal 15:21  |  Angelica 04/08/06
  35.   reply to #30 15:38  |  Jimmy 04/08/06
  36.   wishing good ride on a paper tiger 15:40  |  BP Diplomacy 04/08/06
  37.   One country will be wiped out:Lebanon 15:47  |  BP Diplomacy 04/08/06
  38.   100,000 Shiites in Baghdad demonstrates 15:58  |  Tim Rose 04/08/06
  39.   He`s A Silly Little Thug With A Small Weenie 16:01  |  Jane 04/08/06
  40.   Lebanon is not innocent 16:04  |  Zo 04/08/06
  41.   CORRECTION - #35 is reply to #32 16:10  |  Jimmy 04/08/06
  42.   Frustrated with EU 16:13  |  Andrej 04/08/06
  43.   South America 16:21  |  P Henri 04/08/06
  44.   Burston`s credits him with more power than he has 16:21  |  Mark Lincoln 04/08/06
  45.   Natalie 16:24  |  Lance 04/08/06
  46.   Which, Mr. Burston, Douste-Blazy retracted 16:27  |  sh 04/08/06
  47.   Genius No---Lucky Circumstances--Yes! 16:42  |  Eric 04/08/06
  48.   Short memories 16:44  |  Michael N 04/08/06
  49.   author missed the point! 16:45  |  iranian 04/08/06
  50.   Douste-Blazy 16:46  |  Roland 04/08/06
  51.   How to address Israel?s real problem? 16:47  |  sebi 04/08/06
  52.   response to 30 16:48  |  ninjA4peAce 04/08/06
  53.   Mark Lincoln 16:49  |  Osborne Reed 04/08/06
  54.   Dr. Ahmadinejad, we salute you 16:51  |  Kazimi 04/08/06
  55.   Ahmadinejad is a hero 17:00  |  Peter Vos 04/08/06
  56.   Reed, More Israeli innocents hit by targeted Jihadist Terror 17:01  |  Michigan 04/08/06
  57.   Wrong: Iran Lost Big Time! They are Finished! 17:32  |  Joseph 04/08/06
  58.   france and madness 17:38  |  Orni 04/08/06
  59.   Osborne Reed 17:44  |  Mark Lincoln 04/08/06
  60.   Its only about youuuuuu 17:50  |  terry 04/08/06
  61.   Why America U.S.A. Is Losing # 1 17:52  |  Ahmed Amin 04/08/06
  62.   65. (Peter Vos) response 17:56  |  Pawel 04/08/06
  63.   Mark L 18:45  |  Osborne Reed 04/08/06
  64.   Ahmed #61 20:04  |  Alan 04/08/06
  65.   #54: Kazimi, Dr. Ah and the Zionist "Beasts." 20:09  |  frs 04/08/06
  66.   genius....? 20:19  |  ravi 04/08/06
  67.   Osborne Reed. Iranian economy highly vulnerable. 20:22  |  Ezreal 04/08/06
  68.   #11 Observer 20:22  |  Murray of Montreal 04/08/06
  69.   #49.Iranian. If Ahmadinejad is not in charge, WHO IS IN CHARGE? 20:26  |  Vittorio 04/08/06
  70.   To #2 Natallie Durson 20:30  |  Howard 04/08/06
  71.   Please. Iran is a third-rate power in 30 min if Israel attacks 20:37  |  Sam 04/08/06
  72.   Exactly backward 20:37  |  Skeptic 04/08/06
  73.   Why nuclear in Israel only? 20:46  |  Zyriab 04/08/06
  74.   "Bradley Burston projecting" 21:02  |  Tim Rose 04/08/06
  75.   To: #13 Chris World War 21:17  |  Simon 04/08/06
  76.   Ezreal 22:15  |  Osborne Reed 04/08/06
  77.   Bad policies make bad results 23:27  |  Türker 04/08/06
  78.   Sectarian Split Inflaming Mideast 23:31  |  IM 04/08/06
  79.   Re 70: 30mins Sam? 23:34  |  Tuncay 04/08/06
  80.   Iran wins....just for now 23:36  |  GOD 04/08/06
  81.   RESPONSE #52 23:45  |  lev 04/08/06
  82.   To Bradley Burston 23:45  |  TonyL 04/08/06
  83.   Osborne Reed/Vittorio. #63/69 Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is supremo 23:46  |  Ezreal 04/08/06
  84.   Iran? 23:52  |  P. J. Casey 04/08/06
  85.   Not a Genius 23:53  |  Niall 04/08/06
  86.   God is on my side 23:53  |  Erik 04/08/06
  87.   "Good Old Days" for the occupying American Peopl 23:54  |  Jim 04/08/06
  88.   #73 Why nuclear in Israel only? 23:56  |  Murray of Montreal 04/08/06
  89.   #74 Tim Rose 00:00  |  Yonatan 05/08/06
  90.   #73 Zyriab 00:06  |  Alan 05/08/06
  91.   #24 snowflake5 00:10  |  Niall 05/08/06
  92.   Not a Genius - Scenario Addendum 00:17  |  Niall 05/08/06
  93.   #11 00:34  |  Allen 05/08/06
  94.   Palestine The root cause in ME conflict 00:38  |  tahir shah 05/08/06
  95.   Secular Persia and Rational Arabs: The only Solutions 00:38  |  Omid the Persian 05/08/06
  96.   To Kazemi Agha ! 00:56  |  A Johood 05/08/06
  97.   re:#73"why nuclear in Israel only" 00:58  |  jeff 05/08/06
  98.   To Chris in L.A. 01:32  |  K 05/08/06
  99.   #61 why is america losing? 01:32  |  Willy 05/08/06
  100.   just a question 01:35  |  truth seeker 05/08/06
  101.   THE FLAW OF GENIUS 01:37  |  Eric 05/08/06
  102.   Omid the Persian 01:40  |  K 05/08/06
  103.   #55-The Genius from Rotterdam 01:44  |  Harry D 05/08/06
  104.   Iran regional power 02:11  |  christa 05/08/06
  105.   #103 Harry D; revisionism and flat-earthers 02:25  |  Peter Vos 05/08/06
  106.   #95 (Omid the Persian) 02:36  |  Gabi 05/08/06
  107.   #103 flat-earth, round-earth 02:40  |  hollingsworth 05/08/06
  108.   difference between israel and iran 02:43  |  Alex 05/08/06
  109.   Peter Vos ignorant remarks 02:51  |  Jake 05/08/06
  110.   Who started it all? 03:02  |  Amoz 05/08/06
  111.   World war 3 03:02  |  Tae Mo 05/08/06
  112.   #40 Zo, US is not innocent either 03:06  |  Amoz 05/08/06
  113.   A Bush`s masterpiece 03:07  |  Alfonso 05/08/06
  114.   Peter Vos #103 03:09  |  Harry D 05/08/06
  115.   #45 What do you expect of an enemy? 03:11  |  Amoz 05/08/06
  116.   iran 03:13  |  uiui 05/08/06
  117.   #54-kazumo 03:20  |  Harry D 05/08/06
  118.   Burston your smarter that ISRAEL and USA 03:23  |  shaun 05/08/06
  119.   Martyrs 03:32  |  questioning 05/08/06
  120.   Ahmedinejad- The genius? 03:36  |  Frank 05/08/06
  121.   Iran will lose 03:38  |  Will 05/08/06
  122.   Who is the fool, Ben? 03:53  |  D.C. 05/08/06
  123.   to omid the persian 03:55  |  wahbi 05/08/06
  124.   reply to 30 and 11 03:55  |  gio 05/08/06
  125.   ahmadinejad 03:58  |  tom 05/08/06
  126.   #105 Peter Vos of Rotterdam 04:01  |  Alan 05/08/06
  127.   respond 04:04  |  mike epelman 05/08/06
  128.   Osborne Reed - You don`t know? 04:05  |  Mark Lincoln 05/08/06
  129.   response to sebi 04:16  |  gio 05/08/06
  130.   Kazimi 04:16  |  Eric 05/08/06
  131.   #94--Tahir 04:19  |  Alan 05/08/06
  132.   response to peter vos 04:27  |  gio 05/08/06
  133.   Angelica in Lincoln 04:38  |  Daniel 05/08/06
  134.   To Joelle in Beirut #6 04:39  |  AB 05/08/06
  135.   re: Great country ... 04:42  |  Bob 05/08/06
  136.   Do Not allow territory fought for to be returned. 05:04  |  Sherman 05/08/06
  137.   ahmadinejad 05:05  |  michael livingston 05/08/06
  138.   To Zyriab 05:25  |  AB 05/08/06
  139.   until everyone can learn 06:05  |  Robert 05/08/06
  140.   michael n 06:18  |  alex 05/08/06
  141.   A little analysis on your part would help 07:27  |  SwizChe 05/08/06
  142.   Irans leader is no Genius. No, No way... 07:45  |  Rich 05/08/06
  143.   IRAN today is US CREATION! 08:00  |  DAVID 05/08/06
  144.   Reply to 34: Eliminating Israel 08:11  |  George Orwell 05/08/06
  145.   FAR MORE GENIUS THAN ACKNOWLEDGED 08:14  |  ALI BABA 05/08/06
  146.   Whatever happens, iran wins 08:19  |  Ferndog 05/08/06
  147.   Iran and security 08:21  |  Ron 05/08/06
  148.   dead squad 08:28  |  lassiter 05/08/06
  149.   ME IS ALI BABA 08:30  |  ALI BABA 05/08/06
  150.   Unaccurate Analysis 09:55  |  Bboy 05/08/06
  151.   #150, Bboy 10:32  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 05/08/06
  152.   Examine Yourself ninja4peAce 10:35  |  merle 05/08/06
  153.   Ali Baba in his Cave 10:54  |  Phil B. 05/08/06
  154.   To Bboy in AZ 11:43  |  AB 05/08/06
  155.   The "Iranian Threat" 12:04  |  Musa Hitam 05/08/06
  156.   to merle #152 12:21  |  AB 05/08/06
  157.   Tim Rose 13:06  |  Margie in Tel Aviv 05/08/06
  158.   Mark Lincoln 13:21  |  Osborne Reed 05/08/06
  159.   Musa of Bandung: Hizbullah an agent of Iran 13:32  |  Ronnie Wolman 05/08/06
  160.   Musa of Bandung: Hizbullah an agent of Iran 13:32  |  Ronnie Wolman 05/08/06
  161.   DAve - on that "creation" issue... 13:41  |  Berndt 05/08/06
  162.   France a Disgrace / Sold Czechoslovakia / Nazi Collaborators 13:43  |  Semsem 05/08/06
  163.   # 149 Ali Baba with a brain of an Ostrich... 13:55  |  Max Zinger 05/08/06
  164.   # 149 Ali Baba with a brain of an Ostrich... 13:55  |  Max Zinger 05/08/06
  165.   Bradley Burston. 14:11  |  Tony Price 05/08/06
  166.   The Saudis, Ronnie 14:16  |  Iranian-American 05/08/06
  167.   Iran today is US creation, #161 and 143 14:30  |  Iranian-American 05/08/06
  168.   You forgot something 14:43  |  Boots 05/08/06
  169.   To 167 16:05  |  Mike 05/08/06
  170.   #73 Zyriab 17:18  |  Dana 05/08/06
  171.   how they are going to stop them 17:24  |  bobby 05/08/06
  172.   France Needs Oil 17:39  |  Nate 05/08/06
  173.   Iran wins hands down 17:41  |  AM 05/08/06
  174.   re: Great country 18:04  |  Bobby Bee 05/08/06
  175.   re: Great country 18:04  |  Bobby Bee 05/08/06
  176.   war 18:34  |  gershon 05/08/06
  177.   only one way 18:38  |  bobby 05/08/06
  178.   #126 Alan and #105 Peter Vos on revisionism 18:50  |  Bor de Wolf 05/08/06
  179.   Michael N. 18:54  |  gershon 05/08/06
  180.   Kill Ahmedinejad 19:29  |  Al Gordon 05/08/06
  181.   Iran may already have "THE BOMB" 19:33  |  Ah 05/08/06
  182.   #161 Berndt: on creation 19:42  |  Bor de Wolf 05/08/06
  183.   No one is touching Iran 19:46  |  Garba Maigoro 05/08/06
  184.   reply to cohen - france 20:06  |  irmaz 05/08/06
  185.   Conjoint Evil 20:06  |  Ali Hussain 05/08/06
  186.   Muslim honor? 20:06  |  look back 05/08/06
  187.   ahmadingdongsade 20:07  |  bernie 05/08/06
  188.   To Sherman #136 - misguided 20:27  |  McLoughlin 05/08/06
  189.   Imagine "WE Forgive" 20:27  |  Louis 05/08/06
  190.   He`s Not A Genius! There`s A Spritual Side To This! 21:27  |  Sam The Sham 05/08/06
  191.   Poorly conceived analysis 22:14  |  Mike 05/08/06
  192.   Israel is humiliated by Hezbollah 22:21  |  John 05/08/06
  193.   Whatever happens, Iran wins 22:22  |  CAROLINE 05/08/06
  194.   #173 Dana 22:37  |  Alan 05/08/06
  195.   #173 Dana Part 2 22:40  |  Alan 05/08/06
  196.   Sam The Sham 22:46  |  Arslaq al-Kabir 05/08/06
  197.   To: #184 22:53  |  reality check 05/08/06
  198.   I wouldn`t call him a genius, but...... 23:03  |  Simon David 05/08/06
  199.   Ahmedinejad Is Delusional 23:37  |  Steve 05/08/06
  200.   His "genius" is dependent upon others` idiocy 00:57  |  Sharon 06/08/06
  201.   Ahmadinejad as Genius 00:59  |  Kane 06/08/06
  202.   #61 Ahmed in Saudi Arabia 01:09  |  Damian 06/08/06
  203.   Osborne, you should read some Iranian press 01:17  |  Mark Lincoln 06/08/06
  204.   Iran´s time is coming 01:25  |  MOYSES 06/08/06
  205.   #185: To Caroline: Whatever happens, the Liberals are bust 01:49  |  Al Kafir 06/08/06
  206.   Ahmadinejad: What`s Your Degree In Again???? 01:53  |  Lavi 06/08/06
  207.   Iran`s Glorious Islamic History 02:53  |  Larry 06/08/06
  208.   updated analysis: happy ends are not just for porn! 02:53  |  michael 06/08/06
  209.   Iran will win 02:56  |  Norman Harder 06/08/06
  210.   Iran`s Glorious Islamic History Part 3 03:01  |  Larry 06/08/06
  211.   Ahmenijad is a demagogue; Bush & co. just STUPIDLY empower him 03:12  |  Jordan 06/08/06
  212.   Whatever happens,Muslims loose 04:24  |  Roberto 06/08/06
  213.   Ahmedinejad is a blowhard 05:11  |  Red Smith 06/08/06
  214.   Whatever happens, Iran wins 06:03  |  Billmon 06/08/06
  215.   Go nuclear...you`re a genius too..."not" 06:15  |  merle 06/08/06
  216.   just a question 06:22  |  M. Shaheen 06/08/06
  217.   response to #155 06:30  |  M. Shaheen 06/08/06
  218.   AHMADINEJAD is IRANIAN HITLER. He desrves HITLER`s FATE! 06:35  |  Vittorio 06/08/06
  219.   I have a solution for Nasralla (NasralYa) 07:05  |  kazimi 06/08/06
  220.   #192`s Lunacy 07:07  |  Claim Boy 06/08/06
  221.   Iran already won 07:09  |  Davinci 06/08/06
  222.   It is petty clear that in the depths of their hearts 07:13  |  Mark Lincoln 06/08/06
  223.   Israel needs a proxy 07:25  |  Anthony R 06/08/06
  224.   #60 Terry 08:07  |  Glubb 06/08/06
  225.   Natallie Durson 08:50  |  Sam The Sham 06/08/06
  226.   Democracy 08:51  |  Angel 06/08/06
  227.   Dear Max 09:02  |  Angel 06/08/06
  228.   you are right joel 09:25  |  mike 06/08/06
  229.   Natallie Here`s More! Reuters Is Doctoring Photos! 09:50  |  Sam The Sham 06/08/06
  230.   To # :88.90,97:Iran has the full right to possess nuclear force. 10:22  |  Zyriab 06/08/06
  231.   Mark Lilncoln 10:50  |  AB 06/08/06
  232.   To #192 12:42  |  Serenity 06/08/06
  233.   Al-Qaida Is Iranian Black Ops! 16:30  |  Sam The Sham 06/08/06
  234.   whatever happens people die 22:00  |  osso 06/08/06
  235.   Israel and the entire muslim world 21:15  |  Qazal 21/08/06
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