By <a href="mailto:bburston@haaretz.co.il" class="tUbl2">Bradley Burston</a>
Wednesday, 15 March (13 days to Election Day)
There's nothing like the real thing, which is to say, chaotic violence, to mark the climax of an Israeli political campaign.
Witness the Israeli air strike that destroyed the Osirak nuclear reactor near Baghdad on July 7, 1981 - by sheer coincidence, three weeks before election day, and a smashing victory by Likud incumbent Menachem Begin.
Witness Operation Grapes of Wrath, then-prime minister Shimon Peres' ill-fated flexing of muscle in south Lebanon. An errant artillery barrage that cost the lives of scores of Lebanese civilians ultimately cost Peres the Arab vote in Israel. he lost the election to Benjamin Netanyahu by a mere 27,000 votes.
This week, with the IDF encircling and punching holes in walls in a curious remake of the Old Testament Battle of Jericho, something finally changed.
The Jericho siege and capture of the assassins of cabinet minister Rehavam Ze?evi was one of those events that changes the national subject. After a campaign that could have easily doubled as a general anesthetic for an entire population, there are now signs of stirring.
Perhaps, at long last, to borrow a phrase referring to the Hebrew word for ballot box, Israelis have begun to wake up and smell the Kalfi.
Politicians certainly have.
As soon as the IDF moved a brigade of troops and a phalanx of tanks and bulldozers, everyone, it seemed, was running for office, even Ahmed Sa'adat, the terror warlord at the center of the storm.
Sa'adat was, in fact, the first out of the gate. A sudden media star as the Israelis deployed outside the prison walls, Sa?adat?s telephone interviews were everywhere, the centerpiece of satellite news stations worldwide.
"We are not going to surrender," Sa'adat crowed to Al-Jazeera. "We are going to face our destiny with courage."
Avigdor Lieberman, the endlessly inventive leader of the Russian immigrant-dominated Yisrael Beiteinu party, weighed in with an alternative to the siege.
"There is no point in drawing this out," Lieberman said. "The air force should do something. There is no point in endangering IDF soldiers. We should simply erase that building, bring it down on all those hiding out there.
Even long-retired politicians found it impossible to refrain from campaigning on the Jericho card. Hitting as many emotional tripwires as possible in one go, former MK and far-left immortal Uri Avneri attacked the siege as a bald campaign ploy by Olmert, characterizing the 2001 Ze'evi assassination an Israeli-style targeted killing, and suggesting that slain Hamas founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin "was certainly of a higher rank" than Ze'evi.
"The killing of cabinet minister Ze'evi was a focused prevention in the true meaning of the term. Those who extol focused preventions cannot say that when we do it to others it's great, it's a national act, but when others to it to us, it's a horrible crime."
Avneri, referring to the 2004 assassination of the Hamas leader, said "Sheikh Yassin was certainly of a higher rank than Rehavam Ze'evi. Rehavam Ze'evi openly advocated the expulsion of all the Arabs from the country, and I don't see a difference in principle between this and the killing of the leaders of all the Palestinian factions."
Even some politicians who backed the siege couldn?t resist taking a shot at Ehud Olmert. Likud figure Uzi Landau sent out a statement saying the operation, while justified, was "spin."
The Likud later rushed out a clarification, praising the siege without reservation. But Landau was back later in the day, saying that in any case, Olmert's policies regarding Hamas sparked the Palestinian plan to release Sa'adat and the others.
In short, the raid got everyone up and running for office. Except Olmert, that is.
Olmert was the only one who didn't have to.
Minutes after the siege ended Tuesday night with the surrender of Sa?adat and the others, Channel Two television cut off the required nightly marathon of campaign commercials to broadcast a live news conference by the IDF's overall West Bank commander.
Olmert was nowhere to be seen, all night - a decidedly astute move.
The next morning, the front pages of Israeli tabloids bore euphoric banner headlines worthy of Operation Entebbe:
"WE GOT 'EM," crowed Maariv.
Across the board, analysts agreed that even if the timing of the siege had no connection to the campaign, the timing for Olmert could not have been more auspicious.
In a one-two combination of a left to the body politic and a right uppercut to the jaw, Olmert's weekend introduction of a "convergence" plan for a major West Bank withdrawal within four years was followed by a military success of rare drama and swiftness.
It is worthy of note that the closely watched opinion polls released in weekend editions of major newspapers are taken on Tuesday night.
Perhaps significantly, a Channel one television poll released Tuesday and taken before the siege, showed Kadima buoyed by five seats over the week before, to 42 seats in the 120-seat house. Labor and the Likud marched in place, at 16 and 15 seats respectively.
If Olmert's main campaign mission is to seize the agenda and set it, he has succeeded, if only for the moment.
What can Olmert do next?
If the last few weeks are an indication, he might well look to Hamas for inspiration and backlash-fueled support. As soon as Olmert unveiled his "convergence" plan, Hamas condemned it as a declaration of war.
Or he can look to Benjamin Netanyahu, who exhorted Likud campaign activists this week, "Kadima L' Avoda," - literally "Forward, to work," but mentioning the party's two rivals, Kadima and Labor - Kadima, to the elections, Kadima, to victory!"
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