The Hamas movement's success in the elections for the Palestinian parliament is a turning point for the worse in the complex relations between Israel and the Palestinians. Even though Palestinian spokesmen often declare that the populace in the territories prefers Hamas because it has had enough of the corruption of the long-time rule of the Fatah movement, there is nothing to be relieved about.
Hamas' political positions have been well known since the movement was founded 18 years ago, at the beginning of the first intifada. They are firm positions: not recognizing Israel and favoring a violent struggle against the Jewish state, without compromise, until it is destroyed. This position was formulated in the Hamas declaration of 1988 and stems from the religious belief that all parts of Israel are sacred Muslim lands (waqf) - a single inch of which cannot be conceded. Hamas activists are also the ones that introduced suicide bombings into the campaign against Israel.
While campaigning prior to the elections, Hamas leaders did not relinquish these fundamental positions. Although movement spokesmen occasionally made statements in an ambiguous manner, replete with contradictions, it is clear that from a political perspective, Hamas is not leaving any room for negotiations with Israel based on the formula of mutual recognition between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization, as formulated in the Oslo Accords.
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At first glance, it appears that from an official perspective, PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas can continue negotiating with Israel because he also serves as the head of the PLO, and Israel formally conducts its negotiations with the PLO and not the PA. Abbas was also elected to his post a year ago, and has another three years before completing his term. But practically, he will find it quite difficult to function when the government of the PA is in the hands of Hamas. The severe leadership crisis in the PA was also reflected yesterday in the resignation of the prime minister, Ahmed Qureia, a Fatah man.
Under the PA constitution, it will be up to Abbas to give a Hamas representative the task of forming the new government. In the last few days, Hamas spokesmen have avoided giving a clear answer to the question of what they would do if they were asked to form the government. Many people in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip have thought that Hamas leaders are concerned about doing this, because it's clear that ministers in the Palestinian government cannot function without direct and permanent ties to Israel. Almost all aspects of the lives of the 3.5 million residents of the West Bank and Gaza are connected to Israel because the PA functions as an autonomous regime not as an independent entity.
The Palestinians' financial existence continues to be dependent on the Israeli economy; the electricity and water supply comes from Israel; and the source of a significant portion of the PA's budget comes from import and value-added taxes that Israel levies and then hands over. The PA gets other financial aid from the United States and European countries, which will also reconsider cooperating with the PA if a Hamas government is chosen.
The elections have therefore placed the PA at a crossroads. From their perspective, this is a political complication, and it's difficult to see how they will get out of it. For Israel, too, this is a new difficulty that has been added to the existing ones.
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