The IDF expects that the relative calm in the territories will last until after the disengagement this summer. This calm will help pave the way for coordination between Israel and the Palestinian Authority over the evacuation, a senior officer said yesterday.
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The officer, a member of the general staff, said lately there has been a noticeable drop in Hezbollah pressure on Palestinian groups to conduct terror attacks. He said the calming trend serves the interests of most Palestinian factions. The Palestinians are interested in the completion of the disengagement plan from Gaza and the northern Samaria, which is set for late July, as well as a successful Palestinian Legislative Council election, now slated around the same time.
The officer did not say if he believes the quiet will continue after the disengagement, and there are various defense establishment assessment over potential scenarios. Some expect a renewal of clashes with the Palestinians right after the withdrawal, due to Palestinian disappointment and frustration over Israel's freezing of a political dialogue with the Palestinian leadership.
The change in Hezbollah's position is in stark contrast to earlier predictions by the Israeli intelligence community, which until recently has been accusing Iran and Hezbollah of inciting violence in the territories. The IDF was rife with scenarios explaining how Hezbollah would try to obstruct the disengagement through proxies in the territories. However, the senior officer admitted yesterday that Hezbollah has lowered its profile in contacts with organizations in the territories.
He said it did not signify an overall change in the Lebanese organization's policy, but rather a reduction in the number of directives and amount of funding that has flowed into the hands of activists in the territories.
The IDF attributes the change to the domestic situation in Lebanon. Hezbollah apparently does not want to embroil itself and Syria into any kind of activity that would increase the already intense international pressure on them.
In another development, Syria is pressing Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other Palestinian rejectionist organizations operating from Syrian territory to lower their profiles. Pressure on the groups began after the February suicide bombing at the Stage nightclub in Tel Aviv, an attack carried out by a Tul Karm cell that was in contact with Islamic Jihad headquarters in Damascus.
But Syria is not demanding that the groups shut down their offices, the officer said. He said Damascus had ordered them to refrain from doing anything to embarrass the regime by indicating a Syrian connection to terror.
With the calm now expected to last through the disengagement, the IDF is planning "coordination in effect" with the PA.
The general staff is planning to evacuate settlements continuously, with the exception of the Sabbath. The action is expected to begin in the last week of July and last a month, with a deadline set for Rosh Hashanah, which falls on October 3. But the army is planning on evacuating civilians much sooner than that. The IDF is expected to remain in the evacuated settlements for awhile, based on instructions it receives from the political echelon. According to the original government decision concerning the withdrawal, the army will complete the withdrawal of its soldiers by the end of the year.
The withdrawal will simultaneously begin on two Gaza fronts - the northern settlement blocs of Eli Sinai, Dugit, Nissanit and Netzarim, and the southern bloc of Kfar Darom, Gush Katif and Morag. Evacuation of the four settlements around Jenin - Ganim, Kadim, Sa-Nur and Homesh - will begin later. While this evacuation is expected to take place during the same period as the Gaza withdrawal, much depends on the number of forces required for the mission.
The order in which the settlements are evacuated will be decided at the last minute, based on commanders' assessments of the situation on the ground. However, the army is promising full transparency during the process as well as avoiding any attempts of deception meant to catch settlers off guard. The evacuations will take place in daylight, but could slip into night if there is intensive resistance
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