Hamas now faces two dilemmas - how to replace a spiritual and strategic leader and how to avenge Ahmed Yassin's killing.
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Hamas is perceived by the Palestinians as a national organization that in the last year in particular contributed to their national cause against Israel. As such, it is not merely a religious supra-nationalist group that, like its parent organization, the Muslim Brotherhood, seeks to establish an Islamic state wherever possible, it is also committed to the territorial struggle in Palestinian areas. That territorial dependence has so far distinguished it from other supra-national groups like Al-Qaida factions and given it a status not unlike Hezbollah in Lebanon.
That's what makes it finding a spiritual leader to replace Yassin - who never allowed an heir to emerge - so difficult. His religious rulings usually were followed by the cadres, as they were based on local conditions, even when other religious leaders disputed his positions. The senior Hamas officials around him - Abdel Aziz Rantisi or Mahmoud al-Zahar - do not have the religious stature that he had, nor does Hamas in Lebanon or Syria have a religious leader of Yassin's stature for Palestinians.
That does not mean the organization is lacking an operational command to plan and execute terror attacks. Its military wing, Iz a Din al-Kassam, has not been damaged nor has the political politburo been harmed, so its political contacts, such as those with Egypt, will continue. Hamas has an abundance of negotiators both in Gaza and overseas, especially when the important decisions are made in consultation with the leadership outside the territories.
The immediate danger is that Hamas, lacking a clear cut leader, will split into factions, as happened to the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt or the Jihad in Algeria, with some of the groups aligning with Al-Qaida. Such factions create their own ideologies and operations that don't necessarily take into consideration the local conditions.
Palestinian groups have so far been careful to stay clear of alignment with Al-Qaida. But Abdel Aziz Rantisi yesterday announced that Hamas had opened a special account with Israel, calling the assassination of Yassin a declaration of war on Islam. That will have real significance if Hamas decides to turn its back on years of strategy and begin operations outside the country, striking at Israeli, Jewish or American targets overseas. There are many infrastructures overseas ready to cooperate with Hamas and the dilemma for the organization now is whether to become part of a global organization, which it has so far avoided.
The answer apparently depends largely on their assessments on how it would affect the Palestinian cause if Palestinian terror begins operating overseas again. And another question is if the organization is ready to endanger its position in Syria and other countries, by taking action internationally to protest the killing of Yassin
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