Analysis / Hudna teetering on the brink of collapse
By Danny Rubinstein
The hudna's not over, but it is definitely fading, and not only due to yesterday's two suicide attacks. It is also evident in the disappointment and anger of Israel's government over the PA's failure to take action against armed factions - and there's personal anger at Mahmoud Abbas.
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"The continuing aggression by the Israeli army against Palestinian cities and the killings of Palestinians, shows us Israel does not want this hudna," Abbas said in Abu Dhabi even before he heard about yesterday's bombings. He was referring to an IDF operation on Friday in the Askar refugee camp, where a soldier was killed. The operation, which destroyed an explosives lab, killing two Hamas men, angered the entire Palestinian leadership. After the operation, Mohammed Dahlan and his colleagues in the Palestinian cabinet changed their tone against the Israeli government, and started talking about the danger of the hudna coming to an end. Hamas spokesmen, led by Abdel Aziz Rantisi, vowed revenge.
With word of the bombings, Abbas cut short his visit to the Gulf states and canceled a planned visit to Tunisia, to return home. He also feels the hudna is close to collapse, despite the explicit announcements from Hamas it is still complying.
"We never promised self-restraint when we are attacked," explained Hamas spokesmen who justified the attacks yesterday while Palestinian Authority spokesmen, led by Saeb Erekat, used the usual language of condemning any action that hurts innocent civilians on both sides.
Both times, the attackers came from Nablus, showing that despite intensive Israeli activity in the area against the terror infrastructure, the various organizations, particularly Hamas, have a serious operational capability.
Hamas promised revenge on Friday, and they managed to pull it off within three days, because the real infrastructure is not arms, labs, activists and "engineers" - but large groups of sympathizers, young people ready at any moment to conduct suicide attacks against Israelis. With that kind of readiness, organizing an attack is a relatively easy matter. It costs very little, the skills required to make an explosives belt are minimal, and the intelligence work about where to strike and how to get there are also relatively easy.
In other words, if Hamas or other groups make the decision for an attack, it is very difficult to stop it. One of Dahlan's aides, asked yesterday why the PA checkpoints didn't stop the bombers, said the Israeli army is in control of Nablus, and there are no Palestinian checkpoints there
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