By <a href="mailto:contact@haaretz.co.il" class="tUbl2">Ze'ev Schiff</a>
The Palestinians have developed a method for maintaining a fake cease-fire. They, including some Fatah members, continue to kill Israelis, even through suicide attacks; Palestinian Prime Minster Mahmoud Abbas condemns the events but blames Israel; the hudna between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas and Islamic Jihad, which was meant to prevent terror, is not being kept; the terror infrastructure, including tests of Qassam rockets, continues as it has in the past while Israel is blamed for acting against explosives labs providing explosives belts. That is the false cease-fire. Six Israelis have been murdered since it began.
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With this kind of cease-fire, it is clear that the Palestinians would say that yesterday's two attacks are not considered an end to the hudna, but rather a continuation of what they regard as its natural development. This is despite the fact that the the Rosh Ha'ayin attack was conducted by a cell from Fatah's Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade. Hamas conducted yesterday's attack in Ariel, with the PA claiming it was in response to Friday's IDF operation in Nablus that was meant to prevent other suicide operations.
The Israelis, on the other hand, look confused. Chief of Staff Moshe Ya'alon, who briefed the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee for hours yesterday, did not describe the suicide attacks as a "red line" crossed by the Palestinians.
Yesterday's attacks were the second and third suicide bombings to take place since the cease-fire was announced on June 29: the first took place on July 7 in Kfar Yavitz when an Israeli woman was killed at home by an Islamic Jihad activist.
Israel continues to speak as it has in the past, saying that Abbas and Dahlan are not doing anything against the terror infrastructure. At the same time, it has signaled that its interest in the cease-fire is even greater than that of the Palestinians, and it is adapting to a semi-cease-fire in which attacks continue on a medium flame.
Israel is finding it difficult to explain itself, because it was embarrassed when the settlers "kidnapped" the security fence, turning it into a political fence. The Palestinians are keeping the fence on the international media agenda.
Israel does not want to be charged with violating the cease-fire. It is watching the ongoing construction of tunnels on the Egyptian border intended for smugglers to move weapons and explosives into Gaza, but has yet to act. It is watching the tests of Qassam rockets in Gaza without taking action against what Mohammed Dahlan apparently regards as natural, and something apparently he believes he can live with despite having large numbers of forces in Gaza. Meanwhile, negotiations have stalled between Israel and the PA over bringing together all wanted men in one Jericho camp, as Israel has suggested.
Nonetheless, some processes taking place are being dictated by the security reality. There is no serious element in the government that would transfer more West Bank cities to the Palestinians at this stage. The cell that wounded a mother and her children near Gilo on August 3 came from Bethlehem, a city that Israel transfered to the PA. The Palestinian Preventive Security Forces and the Shin Bet have not yet found the shooters.
Proposals for more prisoners releases, including administrative detainees, will encounter even more difficulties. Ministers who were open to additional releases while expecting the Palestinians to take more aggressive action against the terror infrastructure will fall silent when the subject comes up again.
And lifting more checkpoints will encounter difficulties on a day-to-day level. The Shin Bet, which is primarily interested in preventing attacks, will be more aggressive against removing further checkpoints
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