Analysis / Sharon in the center, with Shinui on the left and settlers on the right
By Yossi Verter
On Saturday, before the Sabbath was over, Ariel Sharon made his decision. He ordered his loyalist, Uri Shani, to close the deal with the National Religious Party and shower it with goodies: two ministers, a deputy minister, chairman of a committee and deputy speaker of the Knesset.
The prime minister only forgot to tell Amram Mitzna. Yesterday morning, five hours after the media was reporting the sealed deal with the NRP, Sharon called Mitzna and ended their brief affair.
Sharon knows the feeling of being used, exploited and tossed out. Twice he went through it with Ehud Barak - the first time, when Barak was forming a government and the second time, when the intifada broke out.
Sharon didn't hide his sense of humor, telling Mitzna, "to reach breakthroughs on the political and economic front, the NRP's participation in the government is crucial." He turned the NRP, Effi Eitam's party, the party of settlers and their rabbis, into the party that will break through to peace with the Palestinians. Sharon didn't even tell Mitzna that he plans to add another well-known leftist party - the transfer-promoting National Union.
Sharon believed his charm would do the work, that the "leftist" Mitzna would fall captive to Sharon's pretty words, his winks and vague promises. Mitzna thought he would get Sharon to sign a surrender document that would make the prime minister a logical candidate to lead the Social Democratic Party alongside Yossi Sarid and Yossi Beilin. Or maybe neither thought so and they were going through the necessary ritual, in the effort to mutually incriminate one another.
Polished politicians like Haim Ramon never believed Sharon would drop the alliance with the Haredim. But it was in the cards since the day after the elections. Yosef Lapid was invited to Sharon's Sycamore Ranch. Amram Mitzna was invited to his office. And "our Eli" as Sharon refers to Eli Yishai, leader of Shas, was never invited.
Sharon will maneuver in the government with Shinui on his left and the NRP with its settlers on the right and be exactly where he wants to be - in the center.
The Haredim are threatening revenge but there's not much they can do from the opposition, where they'll be hard-pressed to find partners with either the Arabs or Labor and Meretz.
One winner, however, is Labor's Avraham Burg, if he decides to run for mayor of Jerusalem. Ehud Olmert rose to power in Jerusalem on Haredi votes, but he was the main force pressing together the anti-clericalist Shinui and the religious extremist NRP and keeping the Haredim out of the government. Olmert wanted Shas out to improve his chances for the Interior Ministry portfolio.
But Sharon did not have to be coerced for this coalition. Nor was giving up the Haredim difficult for him. He was sick of them in the first term, Shas's incessant trouble over the budget, United Torah Judaism's insistence on laws Sharon doesn't believe in, like the Tal Law and the Large Families Law.
Sharon also won't have any problems with budget cuts with the liberal Shinui and the extremist right, whether it is NIS 10, 12 or 14 billion. Lapid, Eitam and Avigdor Lieberman from the National Union won't have any problem with that. But when the political crunch on the Palestinian issue comes up, the whole thing will fall apart.
And, even before that, Lapid and his Shinui colleagues are going to be embarrassed every week, as Labor and Meretz bring up anti-clerical bills based entirely on Shinui platforms.
There were some political observers yesterday who predicted Sharon chose the coalition he did to get rid of the right-wing parties and bring in Labor down the line. While that sounds tempting, it's not logical. If he wanted, he could have chosen Labor and Shinui from the start, and avoided the possibility of his government toppling in mid-term.
For his part, Lapid's haste to get into the government made them give up most of their principles and demands, and make do with committees for new legislation to replace the Tal Law, and to help couples forbidden to marry by the rabbinate. Committees are famous for never finishing their work on time. But their advantage is everyone forgets and gets on with the business of being a minister, with a suite of offices, a chauffeur and other benefits.
Lapid owes Sarid an apology. When Sarid joined the Barak coalition of 1999, with Shas, he did not break a single promise except that he wouldn't be in the same government as Shas. Lapid broke many more promises, and it seems the only real accomplishment he can point to is that Shas isn't in the government - but it's highly unlikely the new Sharon government will undertake the civil revolution Shinui promised
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