Prime Minister Ariel Sharon will do everything in his power and use everything at his disposal to establish a national unity government in the image of the previous one - including the Labor Party. If he fails, he will approach Shinui, which won 15 seats in Tuesday's election, and offer the anti-religious party a place in a narrow, right-wing government, with or without Shas.
If Sharon opts for a narrow right-wing coalition, he could potentially establish a 69-seat government by combining his Likud's 38 seats with those of Shas (11), United Torah Judaism (5), the National Union (7), the National Religious Party (6) and Yisrael b'Aliyah (2).
But Sharon, who has been cool to any talk of joining forces with ex-cabinet minister Avigdor Lieberman's National Union, was quoted Tuesday night as ruling out a narrow right-wing government under any circumstances, saying that if efforts to establish a unity government fell through, he would call for new elections.
Beyond a unity government anchored by the Likud, Labor, and Shinui, other options remain open to him, including an alternate, potentially fragile 64-seat center-right government without the ultra-Orthodox parties, comprising the Likud (38), Shinui (15), the National Religious Party (6), One Nation (3) and Yisrael b'Aliyah (2).
Another option would be a center-right government with the ultra-Orthodox parties, banding together the Likud (38), National Religious Party (6), United Torah Judaism (5), Shas (11), One Nation (4), and Yisrael b'Aliyah (2), a configuration that would yield 65 seats.
Despite declarations by Amram Mitzna that his Labor Party will not join a government headed by Sharon, the prime minister will make every effort to persuade him to reconsider. Should Labor agree, two possibilities would be created for Sharon.
The first is the formation of a secular unity government of 77 seats that would include Likud (38), Labor (19), Shinui (15) and Yisrael b'Aliyah (2). But this is unlikely not only because of Labor's stated refusal to return to a unity government under Sharon, but also because a secular government would require that the Likud break its traditional ties with the ultra-Orthodox parties.
Another, even more unlikely possibility, would be an 84-seat government according to the composition that existed prior to the elctions, and would include Likud (38), Labor (19), Shas (11), United Torah Judaism (5), National Religious Party (6), One Nation (3) and Yisrael b'Aliyah (2)
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