Whilst no-one would benefit from a conflict with Iran, any move by Iran, for any reason, to close the Hormuz Straits would provoke a war with the US. And whilst you are right in thinking that a land war would be terribly bloody and costly, a land war is not necessary to defeat Iran.
Here`s why - there is a difference between winning a war, versus winning the peace afterward. The first requires the massive, overwhelming projection of military force to destroy the enemy`s economic infrastructure. And the US has already proven itself - twice now - quite capable of doing precisely that in the Middle East.
If there is no interest in occupying the whole of Iran afterward, but simply levelling it (and this is always a military option) - your prediction falls apart. Iran has everything to lose in such a conflict.
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