| These "conservative" issues,i.e. gun ownership, abortion, etc, may strengthen McCain`s hold on the white male vote, but Obama will win (although maybe closer than expected) in the most polarized vote in history relative to racial/ethnic background and gender. The "gender gap" is the most critical for him, and there is no sign of weakening in his solid majority hold on the "womem`s vote". In fact, for those of us old enough to remember, this election is looking a lot like 1960, at which time the idea of a Roman Catholic president was more shocking than an African-american president is today. Kennedy won in a close election in 1960 because of his popularity among women voters. Of course, he also benefited from an overwhelming majority of Roman Catholic voters. These Catholic voters were normally more democratic than republican, but the difference was that they voted in much higher than normal numbers in 1960 and voted for Kennedy by a huge margin. Lots of similarities with 2008. |
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