It is actually very likely that a war between Israel and Syria will take place within the next year or two. And on that unhappy occasion, Hizballah may get involved too.
Israel is holding on to the Golan, leaving Syria no choice but to do what Sadat did in 1973: Try to grab the Golan by surprise, then hold on to it for a while until the Security Council puts an end to the fighting.
Sadat`s military goal was extremely modest: Grab a strip 10-20 km wide along the Suez Canal, and see the international atmosphere changing. He was correct in his assessment and eventually got the Sinai back in return for peace, a price he was willing to pay before the war. Syria is willing to do the same, but Israel and the US are not listening, so there will be war and then the Golan will be exchanged for peace.
It makes sense that that this unnecessary war will take place in the near future, before Israel has an anti-rocket defense. I suppose it will happen after Bush leaves office, when a more rational President will replace him. In the meantime, Syria is improving its air defenses and rocket ability in order to enable it to counter the expected Israeli retaliation. |
|
