Last update - 01:44 16/03/2008
Say good-bye to quiet
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff
In practice, the lull ended last Wednesday, when Israeli forces killed five wanted Palestinians in the West Bank and Islamic Jihad responded by firing rockets at Sderot. But even though numerous rockets were fired on Thursday, Israel exercised restraint until yesterday.
There were many reasons for this, including the weather, which made aerial operations difficult. But the bottom line is that the Israel Defense Forces and Islamic Jihad have resumed fighting. Hamas, in contrast, is thus far keeping a low profile: It is not firing rockets itself, but neither is it trying to stop Islamic Jihad from doing so.
Egypt will continue its mediation efforts this week. But the gaps between the parties on critical issues (opening the Gaza border crossings, continued IDF operations in the West Bank) seem difficult to bridge.
Over the weekend, a bullet fired by Hamas hit an Israeli helicopter over Gaza. Hamas exulted, while the IDF dismissed it as a single bullet that caused no significant damage. Yet that was largely luck: A single bullet in the right spot can down a helicopter.
The incident shows two things. First, Hamas, which has adopted the combat doctrine used by Hezbollah in south Lebanon, is seeking symbolic achievements that will deter the IDF and bolster Gaza residents' fighting spirit. Second, even though the organization apparently has a few advanced Strela anti-aircraft missiles (SA-7s), it is currently sticking to the anti-aircraft guns that it seized from Fatah forces when it took over the Strip last June. Possibly the missiles are being reserved for a period of more intense conflict - for instance, should Israel decide to reoccupy parts of Gaza. But, in any case, the air force is acting on the assumption that such missiles may be used against it and taking suitable precautions.
Air power continues to constitute a key part of IDF operations in Gaza. About half of all armed Palestinians killed by Israel last year - including more than 60 percent in Gaza - died in aerial strikes. By comparison, the air force accounted for only 5 percent of Palestinian deaths in 2002.
At the same time, IDF statistics show a steady improvement in the terrorist-to-civilian fatality ratio from aerial assaults: Last year, it stood at 24:1, up from 1:1 four years earlier.
The air force has benefited from close cooperation with the IDF Southern Command and greatly improved intelligence from the Shin Bet security service. But nobody is under any illusion that air power can stop the Qassams. All the relevant bodies acknowledge that a significant reduction in the rocket fire can be achieved only by a prolonged presence of ground forces in the parts of northern Gaza that serve as launching zones - which is liable to result in numerous IDF casualties. The lesson of Lebanon has been learned; the problem is the implementation.
The connection between the Lebanese and Palestinian theaters was once again proved on Friday, when Hezbollah promised financial assistance to the widow of Mohammed Shehadeh, the Islamic Jihad operative killed by Israel on Wednesday. Shehadeh was buried in a Hezbollah flag. It seems that Hezbollah is no longer even trying to hide its ties with Palestinian terror groups.
The Palestinian Authority is aware of this connection, and its security services say they have arrested several West Bank residents with ties to Hezbollah. However, they did not arrest Shehadeh, despite knowing that Israel was stepping up its efforts to capture him. PA officials also believe Hezbollah was behind the terrorist attack at Jerusalem's Mercaz Harav Yeshiva 10 days ago.
Currently, the capabilities of the PA security services vary widely in different parts of the West Bank. In northern cities such as Jenin, Nablus and Tubas, which used to be the worst trouble spots, the PA has had some significant success against Islamic terror groups. But in southern cities such as Hebron and Bethlehem, which had previously been considered calmer, the PA is having trouble coping with the terrorists.