Last update - 00:00 28/09/2007
Would Barghouti's release save Fatah?
By Avi Issacharoff
The brainstorming in Israel on how to strengthen Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas has again raised the possibility of releasing Tanzim leader Marwan Barghouti from prison. Several members of Ehud Olmert's government regard clemency as a wonder drug that would instantly bolster the popularity of Abbas (Abu Mazen) and save Fatah from collapse. But it is doubtful that Barghouti can be his movement's savior. To save Fatah, more is needed than the reemergence of this or that charismatic leader. In certain circumstances, freeing Barghouti could definitely help Abu Mazen in the internal Palestinian arena, but in other conditions it is even likely to hurt him.
In fact, some of those closest to the PA chairman speak skeptically about Barghouti's ability to save the rais, the leader. Barghouti, they say, enjoys support among the Palestinian people, but is liable to become Abu Mazen's most dangerous opponent once he is out of prison. At this stage, relations between the two are excellent. The rais coordinates practically every significant move with Barghouti. But according to several people close to Abu Mazen, if Barghouti is released and negotiations with Israel produce significant understandings on a permanent-status accord, only Barghouti would be capable and eager enough to undermine Abu Mazen's leadership.
These Abu Mazen associates do not forget how in July 2000, on the eve of the current intifada, Barghouti posed the strongest opposition to Yasser Arafat within Fatah. He organized stormy demonstrations in the territories against Arafat's concessions at Camp David, and he surrounded himself with armed men. The rifles that appeared with Barghouti in July fired at Israeli targets in October. Barghouti, more than any other Palestinian leader, can register a patent on the outbreak of riots, and more than anything else on the abandonment of the intifada's popular dimension and the transition to armed struggle. Through his aide, Ahmed Barghouti, he established a network of armed groups - the Al-Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades - that eviscerated the term 'Fatah leadership.'
But the Tanzim leader committed his most critical mistake more than two years later when Fatah, under Barghouti's leadership, started to carry out suicide attacks. This move eventually led to the reoccupation of the West Bank.
Barghouti's associates also note that if Fatah had received in the parliamentary elections all the votes Barghouti had garnered in the organization's primaries, the movement would have at least won the elections in the Ramallah region. However, on the eve of the elections, Barghouti advocated an extremist doctrine that was very similar to that of Hamas, and the votes ultimately went to Hamas. In addition, Barghouti pressured Abu Mazen to form a unity government with Hamas.
Abbas' associates are now concerned that Barghouti will quickly return to talking with Hamas. 'With all due respect to Barghouti, he will not be able to liberate the Gaza Strip from Hamas,' they say. 'If Israel is interested in strengthening Abbas, it should release the veteran prisoners and remove dozens of checkpoints. Then the people would immediately feel the achievements the rais attained for them.'
On the other hand, Barghouti's supporters say, the criticism leveled against him comes from the long-time Fatah officials who are mainly worried about what will happen to their jobs if he is released. 'There are more proponents of Marwan?s release in Israel than in Fatah,' they cynically note. According to these Barghouti loyalists, the only one who enjoys broad public support today and would be capable of implementing a peace accord with Israel is Barghouti.
They are right. There is no other potential heir on the horizon. National Infrastructure Minister Benjamin Ben-Eliezer also made this argument in a holiday eve interview in Haaretz. Ben-Eliezer said Barghouti "is -apparently the relevant partner for a political breakthrough."
Ben-Eliezer has to hope that the 'partner' does not try to ignite a third intifada if peace talks get bogged down again.
In addition, the national infrastructures minister said Israel should condition Barghouti's release on the release of Gilad Shalit, who is being held by Hamas. But it appears Ben-Eliezer failed to note that Hamas fears Barghouti?s release. Israel's conditioning of Barghouti's release on an exchange for Shalit is actually liable to convince Hamas to continue to hold Shalit for a long time.