Last update - 00:00 07/09/2007
ANALYSIS: Despite IAF incident, Israel less worried about Syria
By Amos Harel, Haaretz Correspondent
Sometimes a picture says it all. Officials have been unusually silent since Syria reported that an Israel Air Force plane invaded its airspace early Thursday. However, the Israel Defense Forces spokesman released a video clip of the Rosh Hashanah toast at army headquarters, which tells a story in eight seconds: Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi grins from ear to ear as he shakes the hand of his deputy Kaplinsky.
Israeli-Syrian tension is still around, but the ball seems to have been bounced into the Syrian court, and the worry of recent months seems to have eased.
The Syrian Arab News Agency first reported the incident at 2:30 P.M. Thursday. Israel Air Force war planes entered Syria's airspace in the north via the Mediterranean Sea, it said. Anti-aircraft missiles were fired at the planes, which fled after dropping munitions. Later reports said the planes had dropped fuel tanks.
More than an hour after journalists first requested a response, the IDF spokesman said vaguely that the IDF does not comment on such reports. Since then, Israel has been silent. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert refrained from commenting on the Syrian reports at a Kadima gathering, and his ministers, uncharacteristically, said nothing.
This time, the flood of statements came from the Syrian side. The message was that Israel does not want peace and is endangering peace in the region. Damascus reserved the right to react to the violation of its sovereignty at a time and place of its choosing.
The question for Israel is whether Syria will respond to this mysterious aerial incident (assuming it happened). Could it ignite war? The unofficial signals from Jerusalem soothingly suggest that there is no need for any wider flare-up. No one expects Bashar Assad to react with all-out war.
On one hand, Assad will find it hard to swallow a seemingly blatant Israeli violation of Syrian sovereignty without retaliating. On the other hand, with so much glass in his house (smuggling arms to Hezbollah, aiding anti-American terror in Iraq), he may not hasten to throw stones.
Damascus is not saying what the IDF plane allegedly attacked. But the fact that it made a public statement could indicate that Syria intends to react. Otherwise, why report an event on which Israel is not commenting? On the other hand, experience from past attacks shows that Assad tends to refrain from reacting hastily.
Perhaps Syria needs time to overcome the shock of Thursday's attack. One option is that it could respond with terrorism. Thursday's incident is the climax of tension that has been building since the Second Lebanon War ended last summer. The IDF tried to regroup quickly in anticipation of another confrontation. Syria, noticing Israel's weakness, tried to improve its position vis-a-vis the IDF; it also feared that Israel wanted war with it to erase last summer's humiliation. The Syrians launched a rapid rearmament campaign with Russian and Iranian help.
Both sides held large military exercises, and the Israeli media spoke of a flare-up resulting from a "miscalculation." But Israel was also worried about Assad's growing closeness with extremist leaders, headed by Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Even after Thursday's humiliation, it is doubtful whether Assad is eager to clash directly with Israel. On Thursday, it appeared more likely that he would look for indirect ways of getting revenge. The Syrian threat to the Israeli home front, whose vulnerability was exposed in the war with Hezbollah, has grown considerably following Syria's upgrade of its anti-aircraft, surface-to-surface and anti-tank missiles.
The Israeli leadership has learned a few lessons from the Winograd Committee's report. It is acting in a cautious, sober and coordinated manner.
It is to be hoped that the story will end without war. But it is important to remember that Israeli intelligence does not always understand the behavior of the Syrian leader. Assad is not an Israeli and does not think like one. His reactions could be very different than what Israel expects or sees as reasonable.