Last update - 02:08 14/08/2007
IDF aims to pinpoint Syrian leanings on war
By Amos Harel
Israeli intelligence expects to be able to pinpoint Syrian President Bashar Assad's intentions on a possible war, uncertainty over which has heightened defense officials' concerns about a conflict in the North.
Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi recently discussed the issue in a special ministerial committee dealing with the northern front. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has also been kept abreast of developments.
The basic Israeli assumption is that Syria will not attack because it is contrary to its interests. But analysts are unable to discount the possibility that war will break out - even though neither side wants a conflict - if tension between the two sides continues.
So far, the Syrians have been busy building extensive defensive works on the southern Golan Heights, after having completed similar preparations on the northern part of the area.
Syria also continues to procure large numbers of advanced Russian-made anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles, in part with Iranian funding, though most of the shipments have yet to be delivered.
Syrian forces have also been reinforced along the border, and training of units has been stepped up.
In discussions held in recent weeks, kept under strict wraps from the media, a number of intelligence assessments have been evaluated.
In addition, a number of sensitive questions relevant to the preparedness of the home front have been deliberated. These include the possibility of distributing gas masks to the public, and the readiness for dealing with dangerous materials stored in factories in the area around Haifa Harbor.
A decision has been made at this stage to refrain from taking any unusual steps.
Some of the intelligence and home front officials involved in the discussions believe it is important to seriously consider the redistribution of gas masks. Since January, the relevant authorities in the defense establishment have been collecting gas masks distributed to civilians before the Gulf War in 1991, as part of a plan to refurbish and redistribute them.
The proposal was rejected, however, out of concern that this might suggest to the Syrians that Israel was planning to initiate a war and was preparing its home front for possible retaliatory strikes.
Moreover, the issue poses practical problems: Some of the gas masks are no longer effective after having been opened by civilians in preparation for possible Iraqi missile attacks following the American invasion in March 2003. The Israel Defense Forces has not been able to distribute new gas masks in recent years, and many of the special kits for use by young children and infants have not been distributed.
However, in an emergency, Home Front Command is capable of distributing gas masks to the entire population in two to three weeks.
In closed meetings, Barak and Ashkenazi have said that the intelligence assessments regarding the likelihood of war with Syria in the near future are constantly changing.
It appears that even they are finding it difficult to form a clear opinion on the matter.
Both Barak and the chief of staff are concerned by the situation in the region. However, in their limited public statements on the likelihood of war with Syria, the main aim is to radiate calm.
In general, Israel has been trying to signal to Syria, through various channels, a message of calm to convince Damascus that it is not planning any offensive action.
A senior security source told Haaretz yesterday that "as far as we can assess, Assad does not really want war with us. He is concerned about a scenario that will drag us and them [Syria] to war, either through mutual escalation on the Golan Heights, or through growing tensions between the United States and Iran. We do not know what will happen in the end, but after the performance of the IDF in the Second Lebanon War, we are obligated to prepare in a much better way."
In addition to the IDF's preparations for a possible escalation in the North, Central and Southern Command have also been evaluating the implications of growing tensions there.