Last update - 00:00 06/07/2007
Blair as Tom Cruise
By David Kimche
Tony Blair must be a masochist. He is certainly not naive, and he assuredly knows into what witches' stew he is putting his toes. He must have read about the frustration that caused his predecessor, James Wolfensohn, to throw up his hands in disgust when he quit the job of emissary of the Quartet a little over a year ago.
I can imagine, though, that it is precisely because Tony Blair knows exactly what he is getting himself into that he found the offer so attractive. If he had been a film star, he would have opted to star in the "Mission Impossible" series; as a statesman he has gone for the political equivalent.
And, like Tom Cruise in that film series, he might just pull it off. Tony Blair is the outstanding statesman of the past decade. His charm, his charisma, his sincerity and his determination will all be brought to bear to render his new function as emissary extraordinaire of the Quartet a resounding success.
His job will be a combination of nursemaid, spring cleaner and school master. His first and most immediate task will be to clean up the institutions of governance in the Palestinian Authority. It is no secret that it was weak PA governance and the corrupt practices of Fatah that handed power to Hamas on a silver platter. The malpractices that have been so rife have gone right up to the top echelons. A strong central authority in Ramallah with the power and ability to entrench the rule of law is a basic prerequisite for any real movement to a better future for the Palestinians. It will also be the most effective barrier to a fundamentalist Hamas takeover in the West Bank.
Tony Blair will find a ready and eager partner for his cleaning-up process in Salam Fayyad, the new prime minister, for the key to success will be full and transparent control of the disbursement of funds, without which the efforts of the Quartet envoy will be a waste of time. One can only hope that Fayyad will outlast his predecessors, and that he won't - figuratively - be stabbed in the back by those who stand to lose by the spring cleaning he carries out together with Tony Blair.
Parallel to working for good governance, Blair will have to address the terrible economic situation of the Palestinian territories. His best bet would be to seek out Sir Ronald Cohen, founder of Apax Partners and the Portland Trust, which has quietly been doing Herculean work among the Palestinians. He should read Cohen's article on "Economic Initiatives in Peacemaking" in the latest issue of The Israel Journal of Foreign Affairs. Moreover, with his experience of twisting the arms of recalcitrant countries to help in Africa, Blair will, more than almost anyone else, be able to coax international donors into helping out in Palestine.
Efforts to improve the Palestinian economy must, however, go through Jerusalem. Unless roadblocks are removed and free movement of Palestinians is restored, no amount of outside help can be effective. Blair, therefore, will have to accost the Israeli government.
Negotiating the resumption of the peace process is not, formally, part of his agenda - that will be left to Condoleezza Rice and her Quartet colleagues - but he will soon find out that good governance, good economics and the peace process are all connected and cannot easily be untangled.
For Israel to move forward into meaningful peace negotiations it must have confidence that the PA and its government can deliver, and that means good governance. For the PA to exercise its authority and gain the confidence of its people, it must show progress in the peace process. For the economy to improve with outside help, previous corrupt practices must be eradicated. That again means good governance. It is all connected.
It will be Tony Blair's task to deal with these different strands. He will have to browbeat the Israelis and lecture the Palestinians. There is no way he will avoid touching on the political elements of the problem; knowing his temperament and his passion for politics, it will be well-nigh impossible for him to steer clear of the need to move forward on negotiations for the peace process.
Can he succeed? It will depend to a great extent on the amount of support he gets from his Quartet "masters" and in particular from U.S. President George W. Bush. He will be helped by Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni in Jerusalem and Fayyad in Ramallah. He will need the support of President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. If he gets it, he has a good chance of succeeding - just like Tom Cruise in "Mission Impossible."
Dr. David Kimche served as director general of the Israel Foreign Ministry and is currently president of the Israeli Council for Foreign Relations.
Reprinted courtesy of bitterlemons.org