Last update - 00:00 22/06/2007
'And now, the forecast...'
By Gideon Samet
It is the best of times and worst of times for political commentary: Nearly everything has instantly become crystal clear.
For the first time since the early 1990s, talks with central Palestinian leaders cannot be held. Before then, daring individuals like Abie Nathan, who drank coffee with members of the Palestine Liberation Organization, were thrown into prison. Even former president Ezer Weizman was interrogated and warned about such a meeting in Europe. Today, people are saying good riddance to Hamas, which has ignited Gaza and itself. However, despite Israel's sudden wave of humanitarianism toward refugees from Gaza, no substantive talks will be held with Fatah leaders on a separate West Bank peace settlement. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert will continue making promises, but he will not keep them.
The reason is that the main political game today, after the last war, is Olmert's battle to escape his fate - a fascinating struggle suitable only for the margins of the national interest. A country in crisis has more urgent needs than waiting to see how the prime minister stays in office. Nevertheless, our national politics will focus in the coming months on how this matter will be decided.
Most signs indicate that Olmert, the man who should be exiting, will emerge victorious. Labor leader Ehud Barak has already turned his back on a solemn promise to Labor MK Ophir Pines-Paz on the eve of the second round of voting for the party chairmanship. Pines-Paz is not deaf: In exchange for his promise to transfer his support to Barak, he heard Barak say that he would leave the government, no matter what, once the final Winograd Report on the Second Lebanon War is published. Now Barak says he will do so only if the report calls for the prime minister's resignation. That will not happen. Thus the coming year, perhaps until the 2008 elections, will be a wearying period of injury time. The newspapers' op-ed pages already can opine safely that the two rivals for the premiership will run on the same playing field, each with a sour opinion of the other, awaiting the decisive battle between them and their third rival, Likud leader Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu.
It is as clear as darkness at midnight that they will put up a good fight. On Olmert's flight back from Washington, his talented spin experts already had begun raking Barak over the coals for his confident and threatening steps in the cabinet. However, the Labor ministers will, of course, do everything to remain in power. They need this time to prepare for the coming year and prefer - as former American president Lyndon Baines Johnson, in his famous quip, said that his rivals should - to be inside the tent pissing out, rather than outside the tent pissing in. Trust Isaac Herzog and Benjamin Ben-Eliezer - as well as Barak himself.
Only a simpleton could believe that the Olmert government will negotiate with Damascus. When the present round began, the prime minister complained that he was getting no response from Syria to his peace messages. After the response arrived - the Syrians again said they would negotiate, without preconditions - the tables were turned. At the White House this week, President George W. Bush told his guest that he was uninterested in hearing about talks with a member of the Axis of Evil. Using convoluted phraseology, Olmert readily acquiesced, burying the channel for talks even before it was created. With typically icy irony, he described Syrian President Bashar Assad as someone who does not understand the issue's complexity.
This will be an easy, but safe, season for commentators. What seems for the moment like the beginning of a beautiful friendship with the beleaguered Palestinian leadership will quickly emerge as another high point in the occupier's arrogant behavior. Injured people are being transferred to Israeli hospitals, fortunate Fatah leaders are being smuggled out of Hamas-controlled Gaza. However, those taking a close look at the situation must conclude, to their disappointment or joy, that these bloody scenes will not blossom into real talks about the West Bank, any more than Olmert's slogans about readiness for major concessions on the Golan Heights will be translated into concrete action.
As usual, hope is dying slowly. Creative politicians like Meretz-Yahad head Yossi Beilin still believe in the possibility of a separate peace settlement on the West Bank. However, the pollsters' head counts are correct: The stable majority that has for years supported negotiations on the territories began disintegrating this week. Leftist positions have been dealt a strong blow. All this is happening at a dangerous time. It may again produce tragic consequences in the form of the next war, which the Israel Defense Forces General Staff is already predicting. Say good-bye to illusions. Bad days are on the way again.