Last update - 00:00 18/12/2006
ANALYSIS: The fragile cessation of a Palestinian civil war
By Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz Correspondent
The cease-fire agreement reached Sunday night between Fatah and Hamas is very fragile - mostly because of the lack of consensus about holding early elections, but also because of the unprecedented level of violence between militants from the two main Palestinian groups.
This was the worst day in the history of domestic clashes between Palestinian factions. The two sides fought each other to death. The main streets of Gaza were closed and the government compound was transformed into a battleground for hours.
Armed Hamas supporters took up positions on roofs and aimed at members of the presidential guard. Children caught in the crossfire were seen running for their lives. The fighting included an assault by Hamas militants on Force 17 troops, some of whose members guard Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas. The Hamas offensive was launched with grenade launchers, rockets and mortars, some targetting the residence of Abbas in Gaza and the Palestinian television's offices.
A Gaza-based Palestinian correspondent said Sunday that "in the past, the groups would fire mortars against Israeli settlements, and today they are firing them against their Palestinian brothers."
Shops remained closed and schools sent their pupils home, fearing for the lives of the children.
The leaders of both sides at first showed no willingness to stop the fighting, and Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh announced that his government rejected the idea of early elections for parliament. Meanwhile, Abbas held meetings with members of the election committee.
Huge rallies of supporters poured into the streets of the Gaza Strip and Ramallah, while Hamas militants vowed to assassinate Mohammed Dahlan - a senior Fatah official and former head of the preventive security forces that targetted Hamas operatives in the past.
"We have always heard from Palestinian politicians that Palestinian blood is a red line," Walid al-Omari, head of the Al Jazeera office in the territories, said Monday.
"It turns out that only the blood has remained red, the lines have long gone."
Nonetheless, the two sides agreed to a cease-fire Sunday night because they neither want war or elections. It may be that just as in the past, the Palestinian leadership knew when to stop before crossing the brink into a prolonged civil war.
Egyptian mediators in the Gaza Strip contributed to the cease-fire arrangement, and Abbas met with senior Hamas representatives in Ramallah. Both Abbas and Hamas leaders must have also seen the results of a poll conducted by the institute of Khalil Shikaki in Ramallah, which made it clear to both sides that they would be taking a chance by opting for elections.
Most of the Palestinians, 61 percent, are interested in early elections, but neither Abbas or Haniyeh seem to emerge clearly as the people's choice. On the other hand, Fatah would receive 42 percent of the parliamentary vote and Hamas, 36 percent. In a hypothetical presidential race between the jailed Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti and the exiled Hamas leader Khaled Meshal, the former would win with 56 percent of the vote versus 36 for the latter, according to the poll.
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