Last update - 00:00 04/12/2006
Report: Arab, Jewish birthrates in Jerusalem equal for first time
By Nadav Shragai, Haaretz Correspondent
For the first time ever, in 2005 the Arab and Jewish birthrates in Jerusalem were equivalent at 3.9 children per woman. An American-Israeli research report recently submitted to Jerusalem Mayor Uri Lupolianski found that the Arab fertility rate in Jerusalem has dropped in recent years, while the fertility rate among Jewish women in the capital has risen.
Dr. Maya Choshen of the Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies, who edits the Statistical Yearbook of Jerusalem, confirmed that the data used to compare Jewish and Arab birthrates was accurate, but noted it only covered one year. "Statistical trends must be examined over a number of years before reaching conclusions," Choshen added.
The researchers Bennett Zimmerman, Roberta Seid, Michael Wise and Yoram Ettinger recommend annexing 100,000 Palestinians to Jerusalem in order to resolve the city's demographic problem. According to the four, as a result of annexing additional East Jerusalem territory leading toward Ma'aleh Adumim, Givat Ze'ev and Gush Etzion, the Jewish population will also increase by tens of thousands and negative Jewish emigration out of the capital will be reduced.
Recently, the political parties of Kadima and Labor have adopted the approach that outskirts of the city with large Arab populations should be removed from the Jerusalem jurisdiction to resolve the capital's demographic issues.
This could make the city a magnet for the Jewish population, tipping the demographic scales toward it. "Avoiding expanding city territory, due to concerns of a demographic burden, will increase the housing and employment burden and accelerate negative emigration out of Jerusalem," the report states.
The researchers reiterate previous findings that Jerusalem's key problem is negative Jewish emigration, which stems from tight housing and job markets. They attribute the distress to a lack of land for transportation infrastructure, which they say is only resolvable by doubling city jurisdiction.
In the 2000-2003 period, 63,000 residents left Jerusalem, while only 37,000 moved to the capital. In the past 25 years, 311,000 residents have moved away, while 208,000 Jews have changed their place of residence to the city.