Last update - 00:00 03/11/2006
Nuclear confusion in Israel
By Ze'ev Schiff
Now that Avigdor Lieberman has been appointed minister of strategic threats, it is fitting to examine who in the government's upper echelon is addressing the nuclear threat facing Israel. At the top, of course, is Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. Next is Defense Minister Amir Peretz, and Lieberman has been springboarded to third place.
The list also includes Lieutenant General (res.) Shaul Mofaz, the former defense minister and current transportation minister. He has been charged with managing Israel's strategic dialogues. This week, Mofaz returned from Washington, where he participated in a meeting on the strategic alliance between Israel and the United States. The main topic was Iran, meaning the nuclear threat.
The list also includes Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, plus a recent addition, Ephraim Sneh - the new deputy defense minister, a position he held when Ehud Barak was prime minister.
With such a list, it is almost impossible that Israel will avoid trouble due to declarations on the nuclear issue. Some sort of traffic cop is needed who will direct the group through the sensitive nuclear labyrinth. There has never been a similar situation concerning this hypersensitive issue. The situation is especially grave because a threat to Israel's very existence is developing. And Lieberman has already gotten himself into trouble once when he made a tough declaration threatening an attack on Egypt's Aswan Dam.
Israel has never been in such a position, and it should be a cause for concern. Many are indeed troubled by it, and have asked the prime minister for clarifications and directives to understand exactly who is in charge of what, and with whom he or she should cooperate. Various bodies are involved in this area: the Israel Defense Forces' Intelligence Branch, Mossad, Atomic Energy Agency, and National Security Council.
Peretz issued a directive that prohibits Lieberman access to the defense establishment. Peretz himself will approve every meeting with Lieberman, who has begun recruiting experts for his office.
Olmert has come to the aid of the new minister and ordered the National Security Council to assist Lieberman. This means that the council will henceforth serve not only the prime minister, but also senior minister Lieberman.
In the past, Israel was known for being cautious on nuclear issues. Everything was hush-hush, and when there were rare breaches of silence, they were usually accidental and unauthorized.
Israel never threatened its enemies with nuclear weapons, and is considered to have a mature and responsible attitude toward nuclear issues.
This has earned Israel the support of American leaders, starting with Lyndon Johnson (when he was John F. Kennedy's vice president) and Richard Nixon, who reached understandings with prime minister Golda Meir.
Before the Egyptians started the 1973 Yom Kippur War, they concluded (according to an Egyptian general who was at the meeting) that as long as no existential threat developed against Israel, it would not consider using nuclear weapons when attacked. Israel's deterrence thus affected the scope of the targets chosen by Egypt in that war.
Now, however, a dangerous change could occur, accidentally and erroneously. Some say that Lieberman will restrain himself. But Olmert himself used unusually threatening language during his visit to Russia. "The Iranians should be afraid that something they don't want to happen will occur," he said. "Everyone knows that Israel has no room for error in this matter." The Iranians know this, as do others, and there is no need to expand on it.
In a recent meeting of the seven-member "inner cabinet," the ministers reiterated their approval of the policy whereby Israel will remain in the background on the Iranian nuclear issue.
This approach must include a firm decision that only the prime minister, or someone who is speaking on his behalf after coordinating with him, will speak about nuclear matters.
If there are any slip-ups, Israel is liable to become embroiled in a confrontation with Egypt and Washington. Israel could also trigger a harsh reaction among the Sunni Arab coalition, and thereby push Israel's nuclear program into the international debate alongside that of Iran.