Last update - 00:00 15/10/2006
ANALYSIS: All is quiet on the northern border - for now
By Amos Harel and Yoav Stern, Haaretz Correspondents
Two weeks after the last Israel Defense Forces soldier left south Lebanon, the situation along the northern border has begun to stabilize. IDF officers report a reasonable level of cooperation with UN and Lebanese Army representatives.
They say Hezbollah is keeping a low profile in the south, and only a few minor incidents have been discovered. But it is hard to tell whether calm has returned, or if Hezbollah is lying low until the next outburst.
Since the withdrawal, the procedure established at the conclusion of the war has been employed several times: Israel relays news of suspicious activity to UNIFIL, which arrives at the suspected venue quickly followed by the Lebanese Army.
There has been no military engagement between Hezbollah and UNIFIL or the Lebanese Army. The Lebanese do not initiate searches for intelligence on Hezbollah, but when they receive information via the UN, they deal with it. The IDF believes that Lebanese Army officers make sure that Hezbollah militants depart before they arrive to avoid confrontation. So far, all parties have been interested in avoiding confrontation.
Hezbollah plays by the rules, too, wearing civilian clothes and refraining from carrying unconcealed weapons. The status quo in the making is that Hezbollah conceals its armed activities, while UNIFIL and the Lebanese Army do not search for such activities. The IDF believes the organization still has a presence in the north, and is guarding its outposts south of the Litani River.
Israel passed on to Lebanon information about dozens of suspicious locations, some of them deep in Lebanon. The Lebanese Army arrived and reported that it checked them without having discovered anything significant until now. In talks prior to the Israeli withdrawal, Lebanon promised to carry out regular patrols, by vehicle and foot, according to information relayed by Israel and the UN. But there have been relatively few patrols until now. UNIFIL, which is supposed to be the Lebanese Army's professional guide in the south, is patroling extensively.
UNIFIL officials claim that each IDF complaint is immediately relayed to the Lebanese Army.
"We consult with them in each case over whether to send a patrol from the Lebanese Army, or UNIFIL, or a joint patrol," UNIFIL spokesman Alexander Ivanko said. He said the forces have been performing appropriately, according to need. UNIFIL is authorized to set up flying roadblocks, use force against "hostile elements," and confiscate illegal weapons.
The Lebanese Army has four divisions totaling 8,000 soldiers in the area, and has begun building outposts. The army has reported on roadblocks it has set up and weapons searches in vehicles. IDF officials question the credibility of the reports of vehicle searches, which it considers to be very important. "The Lebanese are demonstrating goodwill and faith in their abilities, but they will need a lot of time before they are fully organized," a senior IDF officer told Haaretz. "They also complain about shortages of necessary equipment."
Lebanon also claims it is hard to patrol some of the suspicious sites reported by the IDF due to the fear of detonating Israeli explosives that were left behind.
Unquiet on the Syrian border
The situation along the Lebanese-Syrian border is more problematic. Lebanon deployed 8,600 soldiers, whose effectiveness is being examined by a joint Lebanese-UN committee. Israel believes that weapons are still being smuggled into Lebanon. "It's an Achilles heel," says a senior IDF officer. "The monitoring there is not brilliant right now. It's hard to guard a border that long, and without significant technological means it is almost impossible."
Another worrisome issue concerns the potential for aggression directed at UNIFIL. Will Lebanon's Muslims view the UN force as a foreign, Christian presence that will attract attacks against its members? It was very important for UN Secretary General Kofi Annan that the force include Muslims. In the near future, 1,000 Indonesian soldiers are to join UNIFIL, and negotiations over delegations of Turkish and Malaysian soldiers are in an advanced stages