Last update - 00:00 04/10/2006
Gaza's chaos offers lessons for defense establishment
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff
The scenes that led many to describe the situation in the Gaza Strip as a civil war vanished yesterday, following direct orders from the leadership of both Fatah and Hamas. Members of Hamas' security force, who had been confronting striking Fatah-affiliated officers from various security organizations, were barely visible in the streets.
But in the West Bank, where Hamas' electoral victory this past January is still not accepted, violent incidents continued, with Fatah targeting its rivals.
In Gaza, Hamas Interior Minister Saeed Sayem - whose life has been threatened by Fatah's military wing - met with the Fatah-affiliated leaders of the security forces in an effort to restore calm. The Egyptian intermediaries permanently stationed in the Gaza Strip were instrumental in brokering the meeting. Until recently, the Egyptians had focused on trying to negotiate the return of kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, but now, their priorities have shifted to trying to prevent total war among the Palestinian factions.
The Egyptians consider the establishment of a Palestinian unity government essential not only to restoring calm in the territories, but also for progress in the Shalit affair. Negotiations to form such a government are now at a critical stage.
Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas is expected to visit Gaza in the coming days to resume talks with Hamas over a unity government. Abbas knows that Hamas is eager to set up a unity government, and one of his close advisers put a new spin on the situation yesterday by saying that many Palestinian organizations would like to see the negotiations completed in no more than two weeks. According to the adviser, Azzam al-Ahmed, if the talks do not yield results, Abbas will dismiss the Hamas government and call new elections.
However, this appears to be a negotiating tactic rather than a viable threat: Abbas knows that the minute he dismisses the Hamas government, violence will resume.
Within Hamas, a dispute has emerged over Qatar's offer to mediate the talks on a unity government. Khaled Meshal, who heads Hamas outside the territories, supports the idea, but Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh, who heads Hamas inside the territories, is concerned that he and his supporters might be left out of the loop.
Faced with these developments, Israel's declared strategy is one of noninvolvement. Defense Minister Amir Peretz said yesterday that "at this time, this is an internal Palestinian problem." Still, in view of the fighting in the Gaza Strip, the defense establishment can begin taking notes.
First, the Gaza Strip is armed from head to toe (an estimated 70,000 automatic weapons, excluding antitank weapons and shotguns). The weapons, supposedly acquired to counter an Israeli invasion, are being used for political, religious and family feuds.
Second, the anarchy is convenient for those in the Israel Defense Forces and the Shin Bet security service who argue that the massive arms smuggling into Gaza makes it impossible to avoid reoccupying the Strip. What is left unsaid by many advocates of this view is that they would like to "make up" for the way the Lebanon War ended and achieve "better" results against the Palestinians.
However, many of the same people who view a war in Gaza as unavoidable were also convinced that following the disengagement, a "third intifada" would break out in the West Bank a few months later. This did not happen. In fact, terrorist activity in the West Bank has been successfully contained, and dozens of attacks planned against Israel have been foiled over the past three months - including during the Lebanon War, when the Central Command had to rely on reservists.