Last update - 00:00 05/09/2006
ANALYSIS: Israel's response to kidnappings had little effect
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz Correspondents
According to government spokesmen, Israel's harsh military response to the kidnappings in Lebanon and Gaza has taught our enemies that from now on, there will be a heavy price to pay for kidnappings.
However, this response has not persuaded the Lebanese and Gazans to release the soldiers without getting something in return. In exchange for Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev, in Lebanon, and Gilad Shalit, in the Gaza Strip, Israel will have to release hundreds of prisoners to Lebanon and the territories.
Names that mean nothing to the Israeli public may delay progress on the Lebanese channel. Yihyeh Sakaf, a Lebanese citizen, is one of 11 terrorists who took part in the attack on an Egged bus on the coastal road in March 1978, which murdered 35 Israelis. Nine terrorists were killed in the rescue, but only eight bodies were identified. The whereabouts of Sakaf's body are unknown; the security establishment believes that carelessness resulted in it being buried in an unknown location. However, Hezbollah and the terrorist's family have created an imaginary scenario in which Sakaf is still alive and being held secretly in an Israeli jail. The missing body is now one of the obstacles to a deal.
Israel long ago gave up gave up on its public demands for information on the three soldiers missing from the 1982 battle at Sultan Yakoub, Yehuda Katz, Zachary Baumel and Tzvi Feldman. But the current deal, which is expected to include the release of all Lebanese prisoners in Israel in return for Regev and Goldwasser, will greatly diminish the chance of finding out what happened to these three soldiers, or to missing airman Ron Arad.
The documentary that will air on Lebanese television on Tuesday about the Ron Arad affair is also not unconnected to the present talks: It signals that the fate of Regev and Goldwasser might become a mystery as well unless Israel gives in.
Talks with the Palestinians, which seem to have a greater chance of success, are now revisiting old proposals: Shalit will be returned to Israel or handed over to Egyptian intermediaries, and Israel will subsequently release Palestinian prisoners in a seemingly unconnected step.
Shalit's release is essential to stabilizing the Palestinian front.
But Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's appointment of Ofer Dekel, who was also called in to replace an Israel Defense Forces General Staff negotiating team at the Church of the Nativity standoff in Bethlehem in 2002, as coordinator of the efforts to release the soldiers is a good sign. Before this, the Egyptians, Germans, Italians and French were all dealing simultaneously with the Prime Minister's Office, the Defense and Foreign Ministries and the National Security Council.