ElBaradei: Pakistan Gave Nuclear Know-how to at Least 20 Countries

Israel must take the spread of nuclear technology into account and remember that terror is getting more sophisticated: Other countries could get nuclear weapons, and the ordinary deterrence that worked in the past may not be effective any more. Israel must therefore think about a different regional security concept and lend a hand to it.

The above was the key message in an interview granted to Haaretz by Mohammed ElBaradei, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, during his brief visit to Israel.

He is a practiced diplomat and a top-flight professional, but he does not always get what he wants as the IAEA's top executive - as has been evident in Iran and North Korea. Nevertheless, ElBaradei is very attentive to what is happening.

Summarizing what he no doubt heard in his closed meetings in Israel, he said that there is a very strong sense of existential threat in Israel. ElBaradei, who visited Israel several times in the context of previous positions he held at the IAEA, noted that this strong sense of insecurity has remained unchanged in recent years.

ElBaradei said there are worrying signs that the nonproliferation regime is coming undone, in the Middle East and elsewhere. Israel has to take into account that other countries or, heaven forbid, terrorist organizations could get nuclear weapons, he said. Under those circumstances, nuclear accidents could happen, or wrong assessments could be made in this sphere.

As an example of the spread of nuclear know-how, he used Pakistan. He said that Abdul Kadr Khan, considered the father of the Pakistani bomb, had commercial contacts with at least 20 different countries and large companies. The IAEA only learned about some of it 18 months ago, when Khan's contacts with Libya came to light, but the Americans and others had been tracking the Pakistani's contacts for some time before that. Clearly, this was not the work of Abdul Kadr Khan on his own.

The IAEA's inspection work in Libya is still not over, said ElBaradei. In September, Libya is due to hand over more documentation to IAEA inspectors and to respond to questions and provide various clarifications.

Asked if Muammar Gadhafi's decision to change his policies was the result of the war in Iraq, ElBaradei said that the negotiations with Libya began before the Iraq war and that apparently, it was the economic situation in Iraq caused by sanctions that was most influential.

As for why Egypt, Libya's next-door neighbor, knew nothing of the impending change in Libyan policy, ElBaradei did not hesitate to say that this was apparently an Egyptian intelligence failure.

ElBaradei said that he does not know of any country beside Iran and Libya - such as Syria - with whom the Pakistani nuclear scientist had commercial contacts.

ElBaradei refused to accept the analysis that Iran is inevitably going to get the bomb, so efforts to prevent it are a lost cause. It is true, he said, that Iran is making an effort to acquire nuclear know-how, including the full cycle of nuclear fuel production, but he does not know what Iran's intentions concerning nuclear weapons are.

He did confirm that signs were discovered in Iran of uranium that was 54 percent enriched (the manufacture of uranium-based nuclear weapons requires 90 percent enrichment). But he also said that the Iranians have frozen their uranium enrichment program. He said there is a very complex situation in Iran: It is in dialogue with European countries, but other country also need to join. This month there will be another meeting between the Iranians and Europeans, he said, and ways have to be found to create a package deal with Iran that would grant it various guarantees, and thus persuade it.

Asked why he does not take the Iran issue to the UN Security Council, he said that no smoking gun has been found - and anyway, what could the security council do? Everyone remembers the case of North Korea and its nuclear problems at the Security Council. Moreover, he said, the world should take care not to reach a situation in which extremists in Iran call for the country to abandon the nuclear nonproliferation treaty.

Asked why the IAEA does not reveal the names of those countries that helped Iran in their nuclear acquisition efforts, such as China or Pakistan, ElBaradei said simply that the IAEA will need those countries' cooperation in the future.

As for his hosts, ElBaradei said that it is clear to him that a new dialogue must begin in the Middle East, and he is ready to help. He said he feels that people are listening. A different regional security concept must be developed that would prevent a nuclear arms race, he said. He hoped that a small step has been taken in this direction, and that maybe in the future, a light will appear at the end of this difficult tunnel.

Yossi Melman adds:

Despite government efforts to keep the ElBaradei visit low-key and out of the press, the visitor has held three impromptu press conferences - one at his hotel, one after his Jerusalem meeting with Health Minister Danny Naveh and one after his Ramat Aviv meeting with Gideon Frank, head of the Israel Atomic Energy Commission.

Today he is scheduled to meet with Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and to deliver a speech at Hebrew University before leaving the country. He is also slated to meet with Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom at the airport, as Shalom returns from the United States and ElBaradei leaves for Vienna, the IAEA headquarters.