Mubarak, Egypt regime change and Israel
Given Egyptian president's advanced age and medical history, his recent operation is no trivial affair.
By Avi Issacharoff and Amos Harel Tags: Egypt Hosni Mubarak Israel newsA week after Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's operation to remove his gall bladder, and there are still only partial updates regarding his condition. According to the latest information from the German hospital in which he underwent the operation, the 81-year-old president's health is improving steadily. He has already been released from intensive care and is now in recovery.
The reports from the Heidelberg hospital have sparked concern and tensions in all of Israel's neighboring states. Given Mubarak's advanced age and his recent medical history, an operation is no trivial affair. And as this region tends to do in circumstances such as these, the more concealment there is, the more speculation there is. One thing is clear, whether in the next few months or in the next year or two, Mubarak's rule of almost 30 years is nearing an end.
Although Israel has not said so publicly, it is particularly sensitive to the news emerging from Cairo. The cold peace with Egypt - the characteristic hostility of the elite and the media notwithstanding - is one of Israel's top strategic assets, second only to its alliance with the United States. And even though Egypt has not disguised its disgust with Israel over settlement construction and the killing of Palestinians, the two countries see eye-to-eye on a number of lower-profile issues.
Cairo views Jerusalem as a de facto partner in the moderate camp in the region, trying to stop the influence of the radical axis led by Iran. Even during Operation Cast Lead, despite international criticism of Israel, both states were hyper aware of this goal.
Behind the scenes, there is already evidence of the start of a power struggle in Egypt. The leading candidate to replace Mubarak is his son, Gamal, although other names have been touted, including General Omer Suleiman, Egypt's intelligence chief and central liaison to Israel's defense establishment. Mubarak is planning to hand the reins of government over to his son around or soon after the next presidential elections, in September 2011. If this happens sooner than expected, the younger Mubarak will find himself having to quickly cement his rule and contend with two challenges: parliamentary elections (taking place next year) and presidential elections shortly afterwards.
Under Egypt's current constitution, there is no real room for a presidential candidate from outside Mubarak's ruling party. The regime will make a real effort to prevent opposition party the Muslim Brotherhood from increasing its influence, but Gamal Mubarak's main concern is not the Islamists, but the possibility of a national uprising over Egypt's poor economic state and government corruption.
If he does become the next president, Mubarak Junior is not expected to deviate from his country's current foreign policy, nor its position on the Muslim Brotherhood. Nevertheless, he is likely to face new questions on the democratic nature of the regime, which may give a foothold to new presidential candidates such as Mohammed ElBaradei, the former head of the United Nation's International Atomic Energy Agency, who has won considerable support from the secular opposition.
Posted by Avi Issacharoff and Amos Harel on March 14, 2010
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Israel already beated the arab legion - twice. If thats egypt's will, it can do it again.
Netanyahu sealed his fate and the fate of the region with his choice of foreign minister. What a joke!
When analyizing politics, you read it according to history of a certain country and public tradions, accepted by society. The laymen, are society, and the intellectuls are just living up beside the stars. Hence, Egypt still has a long road top go. I am secualr but realist, and support Mubarak or his son, vis a vis, Baradei, since Baradei, is so utopian, even I am proud of him of course as a Noble winner, buy politics is not a field of experiments in the ME!
egypt will witness big changes in leadership and politics . egyptions are fed-up with mobarak and his family and they want to C honest egyptions ruling the country . next leadership will be hostile to israel in order to gain trust of egyptions .if muslim-brotherhood movement rules the country they will ally with iran and syria and hizbollah and all radical movements in the region .israel must prepare for the worst senario in its short history .
gamal mubarak is not the favourite to succeed his father. however, mr Elbaradie will know what to do as a dream president to the overwhelmed egypt for decades under the marshal police regime. let us live freely as u r. thanks.
Since when has Egypt been a democracy? The reason for the cold peace is Egypt's rulers recieve almost half as much as Israel in payoffs. Whoever becomes Egypt's next dictator, Gamal, Suleiman or anyone else they will meet the same fate as Diem if they don't follow orders.
barely outlive his father. Since the current Egyptian government is so far out of sync with the population, there will be a massive power struggle and in the end, a very anti-Israel government will eventually be formed. There are lots of people just waiting for Hosni Mubarak to die so they can take over the government and virtually none of them view Israel as a friend. Israel's future is getting dimmer by the day.
I hope the US will have the brains to stop all this silly nonsense about democracy in the arab world.The mubarak dynasty should be supported full tilt, not to do so would be a major error.Egypt must not fall into the hands of the brotherhood, nor into the hands of weak liberals, who will be overthrown by the Muslim brotherhood.
Gall blader is one of the simplest safest operation.
What will be the consequences of a failure to change the Israeli regime on the upcoming power struggle in Egypt?
If Hosni is still in power when the next presidential elections is due, then Gamal would inherit the presidency as a figure head with the real power is Suleiman's hand. Gamal is not a seasoned politician, he will be authorised to only hold the line of his father. Being preceived weak, the population will be restive. The army will increase its power. The bortherhood will be vocally more disruptive. Israel reationship will not be better specially if it attacks other countries in the neighbourhood.
Egypt is numerically by far the largest Arab population and generally the leading Arab state. Israel's peace with Egypt must continue.