Israel treading carefully to avoid war with Syria
IDF cancels part of massive combat training exercise in north to calm tensions with Syria.
By Amos Harel Tags: Iran Syria Israel news IDFIn the last few weeks, Israel has been at pains to cool tensions with Syria and prevent misunderstandings that could spiral into confrontation on its northern border.
A huge central command training exercise, "Firestones 12", which took place in the north last week, conspicuously omitted simulations of war with Syria. Instead, the IDF fought mock battles in preparation for clashes with Hezbollah in Lebanon or Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
The army also cancelled emergency call-up drills for large numbers of regular forces and reserves, fearing Syria might mistake such a move as mobilization for war. At the same time, the government exploited both public and covert channels to send soothing messages to Damascus.
Recent weeks have seen increasingly frequent references by senior figures in Iran, Syria and Hezbollah of the prospect of war with Israel, which they accuse of planning a confrontation.
Last week the Syrian and Iranian presidents held talks with the heads of Hamas and Hezbollah in Damascus, where Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad proclaimed in a speech that the "Zionist regime" was approaching its demise.
Israel's effort to avert another escalation in the north, closely coordinated with the United States, is twofold, combining both assuagement and deterrence. The government is placating Syria with the message that it has no interest in war; but it also making threatening noises about the need to prevent arms smuggling to Hezbollah.
A senior IDF intelligence officer told the Knesset this week that Syria had supplied Hezbollah with "components" more significantly sophisticated than in the past. And the Lebanese newspaper Al-Hayat reported that that U.S. Secretary of state Hilary Clinton had warned Nabih Beri, speaker of the Lebanese parliament, that the U.S. might be hard pushed to restrain Israel from an excessive response if the flow of arms to Hezbollah continued.
Participants in last week's exercises returned encouraged by IDF commanders' professionalism - but depressed by the underlying reality. If war returns to the north, Israel may struggle to find a winning formula. Certainly, the air force could easily rain destruction on Lebanon and its infrastructure ? but there is no way of cutting drastically Hezbollah's ability to bombard northern Israel with Katyusha rockets at, or launch even heavier ordnance at Tel Aviv.
In a report this week for the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, David Schenker and Matthew Levitt write that it has Syria likely supplied Hezbollah with Russian shoulder-launched Igla antiaircraft missiles, which, they say, could threaten Israeli F-16 fighter planes over Lebanon.
Defense Minister Ehud Barak said last week at a Washington Institute memorial lecture for Haaretz correspondent Ze'ev Schiff that Hezbollah has around 45,000 missiles and rockets in Lebanon. This is considerably higher than Israel's previous estimates.
"We cannot accept these artificial differentiations between the terrorists of Hezbollah and the state of Lebanon and their sponsors," Barak said.
He continued: "We don?t need this conflict but if it is imposed upon us, we will not run after every individual terrorist but we will take both the Lebanese government and other sources of sponsorship, but mainly the Lebanese government and the Lebanese infrastructure, as part of the equation facing us."
Growing divisions over Iran
Meanwhile, there are signs of a deepening split in the senior ranks of the security forces over Israel's strategy for dealing with Iran. Barak has personal differences with Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi - but they are also divided over strategy.
Tensions between the defense minister and his commander flared when their advisers clashed publicly a few weeks ago and have not since returned to normal. Secretive and provocative briefings from a range of sources are feeding the worsening feud. Friends of Ashkenazi, including former generals, claim the army chief is victim to serial and carefully directed harassment from Barak's staff. The defense minister's team continues to ridicule the charges and insists relations are fine, with regular joint meetings are taking take place as usual.
Ashkenazi, says one of his confidants, knows that history will not forgive him if he is seen as failing to prepare the IDF adequately for an offensive war. On the other hand, he is aware of the limitations of Israel's forces. Is he capable of supplying a clear plan of action? Detractors are infuriated by his habit of presenting decision makers with a menu of options, without committing himself to any of them.
In his visit to Israel last week, U.S. Senator John Kerry finally drew the veil fromm a series of mysterious trips to Israel by senior American officials when he hinted that their purpose was to urge Israel to shelve any plans to attack Iran - at least for now. The Americans, of course, need to wave the Israeli stick if they are to convince a doubting China to back sanctions - but they are genuinely worried Israel might act rashly. Israel, from the outset skeptical over President Barack Obama's attempt to engage the Ayatollahs, has begun (quietly) to voice mistrust in the efficacy of sanctions, now set to come into force in April at the earliest.
The Obama administration erred in playing down the military option while it tried to negotiate with Iran, which has been allowed to stall repeatedly. When finally in October the IAEA put forward a compromise, under which Iran would send uranium aboard for enrichment, it was the Iranians who wriggled out of the deal. It seems the decision was taken by the regime's spiritual leader, Ali Khamenei, who doubted the America's sincerity. As a result, the main outcome of U.S. strategy so far is that Iran has bought itself another year and a half of breathing space, during which its centrifuges never stopped spinning.
Posted by Amos Harel on March 5, 2010
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kah kah don't cheat... please read this "60% of Europeans regard Israel as more threatening than either North Korea or Iran" - everyday, second the zionist regime thinking how to destroy iran syria hizbullah .. kah kah don't cheat aaaa..
Are you crazy? If Israel nuked Iran Israel might hurt itself? You must have been out of the military for a long time. Israel CANNOT nuke Iran. Russia would nuke Israel as fallout likely kill thousands of Russians. What wind doesn't blow that way? You never know but if it blows the other way. You will get nuked by India and Pakistan. Even conventional wars against real militaries will devastate Israel. Syria has a real military. Oh sure badly trained army, no real airforce BUT their 90000+ missles armed with conventional, bio and chem warheads will cause Israels total destruction. Attack Iran and your planes will have no airstrip on which to land upon return. Sure nuke 'em all and end up in Khazaria heaven,...or hell.
What exactly makes you think that forfeiting land results in peace? Maybe we are reading different books.
it's now wonder your forces are losing, people like you think that if by demolishing a country you have won are plain nutcases, look at iraq, afghanistan, sure you might be there in force, but look at how many of you have died and how much it has cost your country, all in all this time syria has prepared well, what you don't know in this case will hurt you, watch and learn from another military person.
get use to it the iranians are going to get the bomb and when they do this will be a wonderful thing for the balance of power and peace will be on the horizon.
Remember 1967, a big miscalculation on the part of combined Arab armies. In their worst nightmares the Arabs imagined the result of that war. Nasser thought there will be a few border scirmishes and Israel will be forced to accept terms. What a tern around. At that time as to-day it was the Syrians who were pushing the rest of the Arab world to go to war. Then Assad lost the Golan, if to-day Syria forces war, his son will loose the rest of Syria, Lebanon and whoever else sides with the dynasty of loosers. After don't come crying for return of your lost teritories. Remember you loose in a cosino you don't get your chips bac, you loose at war, you're lucky to keep your life.
Jamal: in 2006 Hezballa did not win, they lost, Lebanon lost and it wasn't even close. HezbAllah declared victory because Israel did not kill them all due to international pressure. You have no idea what HELL you and all the Lebanese and Lebanon will go thru this time. While Assad and the persian mullahs are strategizing how to sacrifice you for their causes, they are making you and many other Lebanese patriots really believe you can win. The only loser in any regional war will be Lebanon, as it always has.
who spell Israel, ISREAL...they are backward...and usually extremely Antisemitic.
The choice for Israel is simple. Either give back the Farms, the Golan and all occupied and settled lands it was not given by the UN without reservation OR face continuous war and threats of war with its neighbors. Strut and shout all you Zionists want, but the choice is yours. Keep up your talk and look into the bleak future of your children and grandchildren.
Israel will only negotiate with it's neighbors if they become militarily capable enough to hurt them; other than that, there is no 'incentive' for Israel to make peace with it's neighbors.
In my opinion you are totally wrong. Israel can't presently make peace with Syriaor give in to the Palestinians. It would make Israel look weak in the eyes of the Arabs and a lot more demands will be made upon it even total surrender. Israel is a mini super state and if pushed into a corner it will fight, in which case it will be total destruction of Syria, Lebanon, and Iran. Israel might hurt herself by total war but if that happens its the end of the Middle East as we know it. (Remember the nuke and the holy fallout)
Mr Jamal , keep dreaming you will never see that day in your life time or you grand childerns life time , Assad is playing tough guy just because the winds are going his way for now! In realty they couldn't last more then a few hours of war with Israel , even if the Arab open all the fronts , don't forget the America will never set back and watch , don't be a fool like the rest of you over there , you should get eduated and accept the Jews in heart of middle east , they have been there for thousands of years , our prophet "pboh"accepted them and history shows that thorough out the years , That they have lived together much more peacfully the anywhere else on plant and that is a fact !! Yes there some bad times as well , but you can't even compare who they lived among the europian countries. Peace to all , Salam, shalom
Except besieged by another bout of bufoonery it beggars belief why Syria should relish war with Israel. Without rhetoric and false confidence in Hizbollah's bloated capability, Assad should be the last to court carnage at his backyard after Lebanon and Gaza.
Jamal , you are on medication, the next time it will be all over for your boys and the Hezbollaha, no more Iranian proxi in our back yard.
If hezzbollah marked the first victory on Isreal in 2006 how iF syria and iran got involved in the next war . Iam sure it is gona be the end of Isreal . Isreal has to act diplomatic , Give the golan back to syria and fix the palestinian issue otherwise it will loose everything .