Iran in the cross-hairs
In their first post, senior Haaretz correspondents take a look at the brewing storm over Iran's nuclear program.
Tags: Israel news Iran nuclearIf anyone still had doubts about an imminent conflict with Iran, it was removed this week by the arrival of the U.S. army chief in Israel and the threats from the Iranian president and Hezbollah secretary-general.
Something sinister is in the air.
If the international community's collision course with Tehran leads to harsh sanctions meant to halt its nuclear program, the spring and summer months will be especially sensitive. It would be impossible to rule out a scenario in which the increasing tension leads to all-out open war. Tehran and Jerusalem regularly exchange threatening messages via various channels, but with Beirut, Gaza and Damascus in the middle, the situation is liable to get out of control.
At a time when Iran is deliberately inflaming the situation, the U.S. is seeking to cool things down. Interestingly and strangely enough, the two rivals seem to have a similar read on Israel's current role in the drama. Both believe Israel could lose patience and implement its policy of "a leadership gone mad" that former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert took great pride in during the Second Lebanon War and Operation Cast Lead in Gaza. This belief serves as the backdrop for Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's remarks implying that Israel is readying for war (which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has steadfastly denied) and for Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's threats to attack strategic infrastructure in Israel.
The possibility of unleashing Israel's "bull in a china shop" approach is also behind the recent flurry of visits from senior American officials, including the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Michael Mullen, and U.S. Vice President Joe Biden, who arrives next week. The visits are intended to explain to the Netanyahu government why an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities is unwanted at the moment ? and also to clarify what Israel seeks in return for sitting quietly and allowing the Obama administration to build an international coalition to impose sanctions on Iran.
Mullen landed here at the beginning of the week - on the hottest day of Israel's winter - with an unambiguous warning. His visit opened with a brief press conference at the U.S. embassy in Tel Aviv, to which journalists were summoned on short notice, and that was characterized by something of a culture clash. Some of the Israeli journalists showed up in T-shirts, and Mullen seemed a bit surprised by the casual atmosphere and by the strident tone of the questions.
Despite this, he stuck to the message he was sent here to convey: that he is concerned by the "unexpected consequences" of an Israeli attack on Iran. Mullen's remarks, made in public even before his first meeting with his Israeli hosts, immediately dictated the tone of Israeli media would adopt to cover his visit.
In recent weeks, especially since its announcement that it has begun production of 20-percent-enriched uranium, Iran has not even bothered to claim its nuclear program is intended for peaceful means, as it had in the past. Iran's true intentions are clear to everyone from Washington to London to Beijing. China, however, is more concerned about its oil supply than the Iranian threat, and sees its refusal to impose sanctions as an effective means of challenging U.S. power.
It's possible the concern over an Israeli strike has come too soon. Israel will only attack as a last resort. But if Iran continues its enrichment and the U.S. fails to consolidate sanctions, or if the sanctions are ineffective down the line, the military option becomes more relevant. In this case, Israel also has more legitimacy to act in self-defense and cannot be blamed for the failure of diplomacy.
This week, Nasrallah broadcast another message from his bunker and, for the first time, mentioned the "axis of evil." He warned of a four-pronged attack against Israel by Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas ? which those parties have avoided outlining explicitly until now in an effort to maintain the appearance of independence. At the same time, Nasrallah presented Hezbollah's planned response to Israel's "Dahiya doctrine" (a term used to describe a conventional army targeting civilian infrastructure used by terrorists) by saying his group would destroy Ben-Gurion International Airport and attack Tel Aviv.
Why Facebook Connect?
Comment on Haaretz.com articles with your Facebook login, and share your thoughts on your own wall.
- Latest
- Most Viewed
- Most Rated
- Open all
RUBBISH!!!! Your day is coming Iran and your puny allies. Mark my word. You will feel the full fury of the IDF.
What's needed is sanity. We probably can't expect that from the Iranian regime, but we can expect it from our ally Israel. Don't act stupid. The world doesn't need WW III, or a nuclear holocaust.
The pressure for armageddon is building. this israeli announcement is precipitating violence both from the standpoint of whether it does or does not build in east jerusalem. if they dont build, the arabs sense weakness and use it as a pretext to step up attacks. if they do build, the arab outrage stimulates attacks. This mistake is but one small fracture leading up to war with Iran. this is starting to look like an unavoidable war. Israel cannot tolerate an Iran with Nukes, the USA doesnt want Israel to start a Nuclear war, nor does Europe because the oil refining capacity in Iran will be destroyed, sabotaged like in Iraq. The person who released this report on Bidens trip is a traitor to peace as much as the man who assasinated Yitzhak Rabin. Or is he a hero? what kind of peace would rabins peace yield? A peace that leads to more peace or a peace that leads to more war? Who can know? Diplomacy was never more important than right this minute. Mabye mutually assured destruction isneeded
where george bush the only one who didn;t scared Obama care only about one tink healcare
IRAN is there to stay : if hillary and barak and obama and mobarak and abdallah doesn,t favor this option then that,s thier problem and they should come-up with other alternatives other than threats and promises of demise .IRAN has the legitimate right to be strong and defend it,s accomplishments and it,s people .no power can stop IRAN from securing its future .IRAN is united in face of threats and danger . anyone who doubts this is indeed insane .
The Big Mouth nasrallah. He spoke about joining 4 forces: Iran,Hezbollah,Hamas & Syria. to rain terror on Israel.(Tel-Aviv,B.G.Airport etc.etc.) Now Israel should find itself absolutely free to counter a devsstating blow. In order to avoid a greater conflagration, Israel should find the weakest link & smash it to smitheerens so that the other three will see & be warned in no uncertain terms what will be waiting for them if they dare launch rockets,or war against us. We want & wanted to live in peace. But under no circumstances will we allow any entity,either separately or in unison to harm us. It will be a pity for the loss of so many lives. Theyshould take stock of their family,their home & country instead of sallying forth to destroy another country. This time you won't have the benefit of any goldstone report. There won't be much to report,anyway. A far better attitude,I say to those around us: just leave us alone. Go Home !
"But, who could be so bold as to take the first step that can change the momentum that is clearly on the side of the Mullahs?" -Stevie T.- Only America Stevie, only America. The Iranians have truly big dreams, the target is US power and control over the flow of OIL from Arabia. The Iranians have an almost perfect lever to attack that: the Jewish/Israeli-Arab/Pal conflict. America though can only change the momentum of the mullah's into 'time is not on our side / Iranian version' by making clear in word and deed to Israel that:- there will be no Greater Israel, no annexation of East Jerusalem, no transfer. - there will be a two-state solution with WB, GAZA for Pals with complete souvereignity as normal states have, including defense, water, air, and all. - Settlements stop growing now. - Siege on Gaza is lifted, no more collective punishment. The Iranians count on the US not being able to do that. When they have nukes, my guess is their target will soon become Saudi-A. and Gulf States
This is an accurate account of the ongoing situation of a planned three pronged, five, if you include Hamas and Hizbullah. The Players: Iran at the helm; Lebanon -Yes Lebanon!, Hizbullah; Syria for sure and of course the Hamas from the south (gaza) and possibly working out of Jordan, with others doing some operations a out of Jordan as well. They we will also try to use the situation in Iraq as a smokescreen to divert materials and send false signals. The United States does not want any part of this war and in fact are wanting to move out as soon as possible from Iraq in the Feb_April period. They will try to broker the interim negotiations and heated debate to Arab Nations such as Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey and of course the usual U.N. and the E.U. Push will come to shove and in a split second , Israel will have to make their move and it will be something to observe. The World will be in total shock when they see the IDF in action . Woe to those Arab States! Warning noted.
was carefully constructed to make it appear that China was the only one to not think that Iran was working on a nuclear bomb, and then implied that they knew it too, just choose to ignore it because of their need for Iranian oil. But, when you start to expand that list, the dynamic changes. Add Brazil, which does not depend on Iranian oil, to the list, and their position that Iran is not working on a nuke disrupts the narrative. Add in Turkey, and the whole thesis falls apart. The list of countries that does not buy the US/Israel narrative on this issue is longer than the list of those that do.
I think China will prevent the US from bombing Iran and I do not think Israel has the capability. No one needs or wants a third war in the Middle East.
The threat to unleash the 'Axis of Evil' has always been the centerpiece of the Iranian nuclear game plan. Surround Israel with rocketry as a neutralizing protective cover while they continue to drive toward developing the bomb. It is not surprising that the bombast from the axis is rising in frequency and in the shrill nature of their tone. This war of nerves rises almost daily as Iran gets ever closer their dream. I suspect there may be some truth to the authors assertion that "something sinister is in the air". But, who could be so bold as to take the first step that can change the momentum that is clearly on the side of the Mullahs?
Free Iran now! The blood of the martyrs will not be forgotten. Death to the murderers. The People United will never be defeated.
wait another 1078 days to rectify this unfortunate situation. The real question is - can the situation wait that long?
I think you are wrong in your estimation. The anticpation of most Arab and Moslem people and their eagerness to return to what used to be Palestine is much stronger than the fear of the destruction caused by an Irani atomic bomb thrown on Israel proper. Israel created through the years-old atrocities against the Palestinians and through its arrogant military power a hate among Arabs and Moslems alike that they seem to accept any possible outcome that ends with a total destruction of Israel. Israel's only chance is to integrate in the Middle East and end it's imperialistic and arrogant handling against the Palestinians and the people of the Middle East in general.
When did Iran personally offer the hand of Diplomacy to Israel? Iran started the threats
It seems to me that an Iranian nuclear attack on Israel is no more probable than an attack on any of its Sunni Arab neighbors. The number of Palestinian civilian victims, and destroyed Sunniholy sites, even excluding those in Jerusalem, would surely cause Arab outrage that might outweigh the possible satisfaction Israel's Arab neighbors would feed at the mutual destruction caused to Israel and Iran, and that is supposing that the damage would be limited only to those two nations.
When did Israel personally offer the hand of diplomacy to Iran? Israel is an undeclared nuclear power, yet dares to denounce Iran for wanting to follow suit. The only diplomacy Israel seeks to offer Iran is 'through the barrel of a gun.'
Isn't it the role of military planners to expect the unexpected ? Even I could plan for expected consequences of a military strike. 300+ million strong US population is surely able to foster someone more capable in military matters than Admiral Mullen obviously is.
A cold war has descended on the Mideast, and the symptoms are obvious. Saber-rattling. Arms racing and alleged arms racing. Assassinations abroad. Warnings of dire consequences of going on the warpath. And the "iron curtain" that Israel built to keep out terrorists. The USA is involved pretty deeply because of oil, and so of course it's concerned about the situation.
Sound analysis and a pleasure to read. My read on Iran is that there is much fluff in their power rants and the Iranian president's boasts are not backed up by substantial military strength sufficient to withstand a vigorous attack on its facilities. Moreover, global powers with nuclear weaponry are not eager to share this expertise by allowing others to gain the knowledge - so chances are the US, Russia, Israel, India and some others have a quiet alliance of interests in not permitting Iran to acquire this power. The US is speeding production of the MOP (massive ordinace penetrator) which should demolish the underground bunkers. These are supposed to be deployable on the heaviest US bombers by mid 2010 unless there are production delays.